In either situation, peaks in current hospitalizations and deaths would occur later depending on the length of hospitalization and the time between infection and death. In the absence of data on the cases, the incidental hospitalization data for the next few days will provide a better understanding of the trajectory of the epidemic.
The projections must however be interpreted with caution since uncertainties persist regarding the severity of Omicron (including the risk of death per case), the rate of vaccination, the population’s adherence to the measures announced and the impact of the return to treatment. ‘school.
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« In this sense, monitoring transmission among young people when they return to school is essential to better anticipate the evolution of the epidemic in the coming weeks and the risk of percolation to more vulnerable groups. », suggests Éric Litvak, vice-president for scientific affairs at the INSPQ.
« In the coming days, new and ongoing hospitalization data will allow us to better understand the trajectory of the epidemic. Given the very high community transmission, the situation remains fragile even if a slowdown in the growth of cases and hospitalizations might occur soon ” says Marc Brisson, researcher in the Mathematical Modeling and Health Economics of Infectious Disease Research Group at Laval University.
