Hello.
Until 2022, the size of the gray market in Russia was minimal, we can say that it actually survived, and many players recalled their best years. Exotic models were presented on the gray market, for example, Samsung variants on Qualcomm processors, Chinese iPhones with two SIM cards and all sorts of things. The main player in the gray market was equipment from Xiaomi, in 2021, regarding half of sales accounted for such supplies, the price differed by 30-35%. The company was slowly putting this segment in order, at the beginning of 2022 the gray market was reduced to 30% of total sales, but still remained significant.
Large manufacturers have actually crushed the gray market, reduced it to a few percent of official sales. Here and the control of deliveries, and the work of customs and inspection bodies. Large markets (Gorbushka in Moscow), online sales at various sites, for example, on Avito, where devices were sold by private individuals and did not bear any responsibility under the guarantee, became the space for gray devices.
The state has built mechanisms of control over the market, including in relation to the transparency of the supply of certain goods, and these mechanisms worked. Everything broke down at the moment when companies stopped delivering goods to Russia or suspended such deliveries. Since May 2022, parallel imports have been launched, which allowed virtually anyone to supply goods that are on the list for such imports. And it became a time of renaissance for gray players.
With parallel imports, the supplier pays all taxes, but the cost of logistics increases, and noticeably. In addition to logistics, growth is due to the need to bear warranty obligations instead of the manufacturer. And that’s big money. There is no VAT for gray suppliers, goods are imported with violations, which saves at least 20%. Let’s add the absence of a guarantee (the one that is given in words is not such). Smaller business size, tax evasion and things like that. The difference in the cost on the shelf turned out to be huge, with gray supplies, the price of the product was 25-30% lower, which pushed buyers to choose goods from a gray seller. And the warranty was gone. For example, when buying an iPhone, the choice was between the price of 100 thousand rubles and the price of 70-75 thousand rubles. In both cases, you did not receive a manufacturer’s warranty, as a result, you purchased the goods where it was cheaper.
The state deliberately turned a blind eye to the rise of the gray market, as it believed that it was necessary to saturate the market with goods, to prevent their shortage. And no catastrophe happened, there are many offers on the market in different product categories. The only downside is that the state receives less taxes. Plus, those who trade officially suffer from such competition, it is almost impossible to beat the difference in cost by 30%. In 2022, there were many emotional remarks from companies regarding the need to fight the gray market. But nothing happened.
At the beginning of 2023, following analyzing the situation, the state decided that the games with the gray market should be gradually stopped. The growth of the gray segment in the electronics market has become rampant, according to various estimates, it fluctuates around 25-30%. Over the past decade, this is the maximum size of the gray market. In 2022, gray traders in the truest sense of the word made fortunes on the current situation (of course, not all of them, there were also reverse examples).
In early February, customs stopped turning a blind eye to gray goods, primarily those that are delivered to the country by plane. Both those who carry this product in small quantities in suitcases (an X-ray on arrival makes it possible to find the product without problems) and those who deliver it on an industrial scale have suffered. First of all, these were those who are bringing iPhones to Russia from different countries. There was a certain deficit in the wholesale channel, and it is growing, prices have gone up.
Let’s take a look at the gray market and offers on Yandex.Market, for simplicity, I took the most popular of the latest iPhones – 14 Pro 256 GB.
Let’s look at prices in DNS, they are surprisingly close, exactly the same picture in ReStore.
If we do not take individual offers of those who cash out money (payment only in cash), then we will see that the gray market and retail have converged at approximately the same price level, directly compete with each other.
Let’s look at the running iPhone 11 128 GB, in ReStore its price is 49,990 rubles.
On “Yandex.Market” we will find many offers, prices will be comparable.
I went to Gorbushka to see with my own eyes what they offer to customers. The choice of both iPhone and Samsung has drastically decreased compared even to December, someone has some stock, but prices have gone up. There are no new supplies, there is a shortage. Looking at the shelves, you can’t say this, they show different models. But as soon as you look at the prices, which until recently differed from the big retail by almost a third, it becomes sad – now there is no difference where to buy. Except that in large retail chains, the likelihood of obtaining warranty service is higher.
The actions of officials are clear and easily explained. The acute phase, in which the market needed all goods, including at the expense of private individuals and their investments, has passed. Gradually, the gray market is screwed up, you need to pay taxes.
For retail, this is a very big relief, as competition disappears, which might not be won in any way, everyone falls into the same position. For those who relied on the gray goods, everything is not so fun – they will have to look for new opportunities. The market today has more or less returned to normal, it works as it should.
For you, I can say that there is still a window within which you can buy certain goods at conditionally old gray market prices. For example, you can find the same Galaxy Z Fold4 for 80 thousand rubles, other models from Samsung at good prices. Look at Chinese manufacturers, but the prices there are not so interesting, since the gray market is flooded with models from China and created for the home market. Very soon, this holiday of low prices on the gray market may end completely. But here everyone decides for himself where and how to buy devices, I won’t advise buying them from serous trucks – I don’t do that, preferring big retail, it’s safer there.