2023-08-11 13:30:16
Disinflation: gradual decline in supply difficulties and selling prices.
The Bank of France considers that these previous estimates are maintained since ” for the fourth month in a row, manufacturers believe that prices are down sharply for raw materials and are stabilizing for finished products. »
From 8,500 companies questioned, in the industry sector, 21% of them replied that they always had to deal with severe supply difficulties, compared to 12% in the building sector.
Lower selling prices: 6% of manufacturers say they lowered the price of their finished products in July 2023. On the other hand, 9% of them declared an increase in their price (compared to 8% in June 2023). In the construction sector, only 3% of business leaders surveyed have lowered their prices (9% of companies increased the price of their finished product against 12% the previous month). THE service sectormeanwhile, lags behind with a price increase for 11% of companies surveyed (compared to 12% the previous month and 23% in July 2023).
Following this slight “rebound”, the selling prices for these three sectors, if we follow the estimates of the Banque de France, should continue to fall for the month of August (4% of companies consider lowering their prices in the industry and building sector, against 5% for the market services sector).
Thus, thee press release from the Banque de France published on August 9, 2023 tells us that “ in the three major sectors, the rate of price growth is once again comparable to that of the pre-Covid period. and points out that ” the temporary factors that supported activity in the second quarter should not further support growth in the third quarter but, conversely, do not call for a mechanical correction in activity over this quarter. »
Banque de France: figures to put into perspective…
Several sectors have seen their production increasesr, particularly in the automotive sector (+10 points since January 2022 at 75%) and computer, electronic and optical products. Conversely, the sectors of the pharmaceutical industry, the chemical industry, wood-paper-printing and rubber-plastic show a drop in their production.
Regarding their Treasury, companies seem to indicate a stabilization of the latter, in particular in the industrial sector. However, this is well below their average, which is difficult for them to sustain in the long term. Also note that the decrease in the price of finished products for some of these companies could be explained by their stocks that are struggling to sell and their desire to temporarily reduce their margin in order to acquire a minimum cash flow for the start of the school year in September.
The business situation remains precarious
Despite everything, the Banque de France confirms that the industrial and service sectors tend to approach the pre-covid level. Nevertheless, even if the figures put forward are positive, they do not necessarily reflect the reality of entrepreneurs. If we take the example of the construction sector, the average order book seems to show a “stabilization”. However, the structural work still does not manage to return to positive since the covid-19. Indeed, the order book continues to fall! While the average seems to be holding up, this is ultimately due to a relative stabilization of the finishing work order book. However, if the main work stagnates today, the second work will stagnate tomorrow.
There is certainly a slight progression, but not enough to get out the champagne. In reality, the situation of companies remains precarious. And even if the supply difficulties settle down, moreone in 5 companies have to deal with it in the industrial sector. This is partly explained by the calming of the politico-social context in France (end of strike in refineries due to pension reforms, general decline in business activity during the summer period).
Finally, it should be noted that the recruitment difficulties in these sectors concern 57% of companies in the industry subjects of the survey and on average 52% of the three sectors highlighted by the Banque de France: industry, market services and construction.
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