The Global Implications of Chinese Invasion Threats: Gideon Luckman Analysis

2024-01-17 21:00:00

Obstacles to Chinese invasion remain enormous: Gideon Luckman

(Financial Times, January 16, 2024)

Did they confirm their similarities? (China-Russia top leaders meeting in Moscow, March 21, 2023, Photo: Archyde.com/Afro)

Chinese President Xi Jinping believes that history is moving in his direction. During his visit to Moscow last March, he told Russian President Vladimir Putin:

“Right now, we are witnessing changes not seen in 100 years, and we are leading this change together.”

This exchange was spread all over the world.

Xi’s words were taken as a clear endorsement of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and as a sign that China will soon play a role in “leading this change.”

The implications were frightening for Taiwan, given China’s longstanding threats to invade the island.

After last weekend’s presidential election in Taiwan, these threats of invasion inevitably returned to the global agenda.

Ahead of Tuesday’s vote, the Chinese Communist Party warned Taiwanese voters to make the “right choice” between peace and war.

But in Beijing’s view, Taiwan made the “wrong” choice by choosing Lai Ching-de, a member of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who China considers a dangerous separatist, to be its next president.

Similarities between present-day Taiwan and Ukraine 22 years ago

There are some clear parallels between Taiwan’s precarious position and that of Ukraine before 2022.

The first is that Putin and Xi respectively view Ukraine and Taiwan as territories that originally belong to their countries.

Putin’s words recognizing an independent Ukraine were disingenuous. Furthermore, the effort to “reunify” Taiwan with the mainland is a longstanding Chinese policy.

The second connection is that both Putin and Xi argue that Ukraine and Taiwan lack true autonomy and are being used as tools of a hegemonic and aggressive US.

Therefore, regaining Ukraine and Taiwan for the motherland serves two purposes.

First, it will fulfill the historical destiny of Russia and China.

And if the invasion is successful, it might deal a severe blow to American global hegemony in two major arenas: Europe and Asia.

Therefore, changes that have not been seen in 100 years will occur.

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