2024-03-01 22:28:38
The German Chancellor doesn’t think much of the French President’s “strategic ambiguity.” His latest video message is a slap in the face for his partner in Paris and a promise to the ruler in Moscow.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz visiting a Bundeswehr barracks in Cologne last fall.
Imago
The German Chancellor set a counterpoint to the French President with a video message. After Emmanuel Macron publicly speculated regarding the deployment of Western ground troops in Ukraine, Olaf Scholz now counters this in a short but, for his standards, very clearly worded video message: “NATO is not and will not be a warring party,” he says. “It stays that way.”
This statement can certainly be interpreted as a rebuke to the French president and as a further indication of the disturbed German-French relationship. Macron may not have called for NATO to become a warring party; His foreign minister later spoke, as an example, of possible help in clearing mines, which would be below the threshold for participation in the war. But Macron’s attitude is fundamentally different than Scholz’s.
Anything but “strategic ambiguity”
The Frenchman relies on “strategic ambiguity”, the German rejects it. When dealing with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Chancellor fears nothing more than statements that can be interpreted.
One reason may lie in the fundamental way in which Scholz conducts politics. Macron is a political prodigy who conquered the presidential palace with his self-founded party and continues to act confidently to this day, often without prior coordination with other European partners. Scholz is an administrative expert who has worked his way up through many party positions and prefers to only make decisions following he has discreetly resolved all possible conflicts beforehand.
As German Chancellor, I will not send any soldiers from our Bundeswehr to Ukraine.
NATO is not – and will not be – a party to war.
It stays that way. pic.twitter.com/6Ya23Zt54l
— Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (@Federal Chancellor) February 28, 2024
A second reason is the Chancellor’s party. The SPD may no longer be the club of Moscow friends that it was until recently. But it is still a party in which “peace policy” plays a major role and the fear of war can be mobilized particularly quickly – in an emergency even once morest the Chancellery.
Scholz knows this. Unlike Macron, he is a creature and not the creator of his party. No wonder that one of the first to publicly praise his video message was the left-wing chairman of the SPD parliamentary group and a declared supporter of disarmament, Rolf Mützenich: The Chancellor’s “clear” words were good and were supported by the parliamentary group, he also announced via video .
A third reason is the mood in Germany. A clear majority of the population fears that the war will expand into NATO territory. According to a survey by the opinion research institute Forsa, 56 percent of Germans think the Chancellor’s refusal to deliver Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine is correct. Only 35 percent are in favor.
The fear of the Germans
Did Scholz open the election campaign with his video – for the European Parliament elections in June, for the elections in three eastern German federal states in the fall and perhaps even for the federal elections next year? This accusation was made immediately. He cannot be dismissed completely.
The Chancellor’s party has plummeted in the opinion polls. Only around 15 percent of Germans would vote for the SPD if there were a federal election now. The opposition union is twice as strong. Scholz therefore needs “a topic” if he wants to continue governing following autumn 2025. The portrayal of him as a preventer of world war might certainly be misleading – despite all legitimate objections to his refusal to supply cruise missiles to Ukraine. Across the spectrum of established German parties, the competition is all in favor of a much more robust course.
The direct approach to citizens also speaks for the election campaign motivation. In the video, Scholz not only promises the German soldiers that he will not send them to Ukraine – which, incidentally, would not be his responsibility; In Germany, this decision would rest with the parliament. He promises the same to the viewers. “And you can rely on that,” is the last sentence of the video. The emphasis is on the “you”.
“An absolute low point”
Who exactly is meant remains unclear: just German citizens, Europe, NATO? One person who will certainly assume that he was involved is Putin.
The CDU foreign politician Norbert Röttgen expressed sharp criticism on Thursday. Scholz is in a dead end, he told the NZZ. The Chancellor cannot speak publicly regarding his true motive – wanting to negotiate with Russia and therefore not deliver Taurus. “His way out is to make the Germans afraid of war. This also offers the opportunity to present yourself as a peace chancellor. He and the leading Social Democrats accept that he makes false claims, snubs our closest allies and plays into Putin’s hands. An absolute low point.”
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