As kitsch and popular as it was in its infancy, Eurovision has often ventured onto the front line of the geopolitical tensions agitating the Old Continent. The 2022 edition is a tragic case study, with the exclusion of Russia and the status of ultra favorite of Ukraine.
The hit “Stefania” by the Kalush Orchestra, a lullaby mixing rap and traditional music, will defend the colors of Ukraine at the European Eurovision Song Contest, the final of which will take place on May 14 in Turin, Italy. “I will always find my way home, even if all the roads are destroyed”says the title.
Two weeks before the big night, Ukraine has a 42% chance of winning, far ahead of the Italian duo Mahmood and Blanco (14%) and Sweden’s Cornelia Jakobs (10%), according to the site eurovisionworld.com, which aggregates the main online betting sites. UK, Spain, Poland, Greece, Norway, Netherlands and Australia complete the top 10.
Not a politicized first edition, far from it
The war in Ukraine will hang heavily over the event but “it’s not new”reminds AFP the historian Dean Vuletic, researcher at the University of Vienna and author of books on the geopolitics of Eurovision.
In 1975, Greece boycotted the competition to protest once morest the invasion of Cyprus by Turkey, then in 1992, the wars following the dislocation of Yugoslavia were invited on stage. In 2004, Ukraine won the competition and the following year, following the “Orange Revolution”, they presented themselves with a very political song which was finally accepted.
Finally last year, the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) excluded Belarus on the grounds that the lyrics of its song attacked head-on the democratic opposition to pro-Russian President Alexander Lukashenko.
Everything is not played in advance
While Ukraine is expected to receive a large number of sympathy votes, its victory is not assured.“Musically, the Ukrainian contribution is solid but there are others. The public will surely show strong support for Ukraine, but that does not mean that they will win. In 1993, Bosnia and Croatia did not finish very high” while these countries were under fire from Serbian troops, notes Dean Vuletic.
Slobodan Todorovic, editor-in-chief of Eurovision fan site Evrovizija.rs in Serbia, believes that Eurovision shouldn’t be just a political arena: “A victory for Ukraine (for political reasons) would cast a shadow over Eurovision and the values it stands for, neutrality, independence of politics, respect and promotion of diversity”.
Ukraine is still very strong at Eurovision
The sympathy capital of Ukrainians in Europe is enormous, recognizes Benoît Blaszczyk, secretary of France-Eurofans, the French branch of the General Organization of Eurovision Fans (OGAE). “But whatever happens they have a good song, and every year Ukraine, avant-garde, is very watched”he tempers.
Blocks never win
Should we rely on past votes to know which country votes for which others? Certainly there are “blocks” in the vote of the televiewers: in the childhood of Eurovision, the French-speaking countries (France, Belgium, Switzerland, Luxembourg) voted together and scooped all or almost. The Nordic bloc, voting as one, emerged later, and then “sub-blocs” appeared in Central and Eastern Europe. “But these blocks were never decisive in choosing the winner”says Dean Vuletic.
And indeed the prize list of the last 20 years shows that the games are never done: Turkey (2003), Ukraine (2004), Russia (2008), Azerbaijan (2011) or Israel (2018) have come to beat the pawn to the queen nations (Ireland, Sweden, Netherlands, United Kingdom).
According to Eurovision fans in each country, Ukraine has not yet won
No less than 4,400 Eurovision fans affiliated with the OGAE voted to establish their ranking before the Turin event: Ukraine finished only 11th. Sweden is given (still) victorious, ahead of Italy and Spain.
The Ukrainian fans of the OGAE, for their part, placed Poland (the first host country for Ukrainian refugees) in the lead, then Spain, France, Norway and Sweden.
Russian fans, for their part, gave the maximum score (the famous 12 points) to the very Russophile Serbia, followed by Lithuania (where there is a large Russian-speaking community), Spain and Latvia (also a former Soviet republic ).
And anyway Ukraine does not need to win the contest to win. “The simple fact of being represented on stage, of having been able to leave their country, of receiving so much support, with the exclusion of Russia, is already a victory for the Ukrainians”note Dean Vuletic.
