2023-04-22 15:56:37
Photo credit, Martin Kinyua
Martin Kinyua grows coffee in Kirinyaga County, Kenya.
- Author, Laura Heighton-Ginns
- Role, BBC Economics Journalist
On the fertile slopes of Mount Kenya, an extinct volcano, Martin Kinyua, a small coffee farmer, decided once morest planting new crops.
According to him, the seedlings will simply die from the heat.
“We have a prolonged dry season,” he explains. “We are used to two rainy seasons, the light rains and the big rains. Today, we cannot say when the light rains will come.
Mr. Kinyua, a member of the Mutira Agricultural Cooperative in Kenya’s Kirinyaga County, adds that high temperatures attract more pests and diseases, which increases the cost of protecting his produce.
When asked if he’s ever felt threatened by not making enough money to get by, he answers unequivocally: “Yes, I felt it: “Yes, I felt it at many times.
What is happening at Mr. Martin’s farm gives an idea of the danger that threatens the coffee industry.
Arabica, the species cultivated by Martin, accounts for the majority of coffee beans marketed worldwide, around 70%. But it is very sensitive to changes in temperature and humidity. Over the past two years, production has failed to meet demand.
The industry is now relying on another species of coffee to support production: liberica. Native to West and Central Africa, its commercial cultivation is centered on the Philippines and currently accounts for only 2% of the world’s coffee bean harvest.
With a harder kernel that is more difficult to process and perceived to produce a less desirable flavor, liberica is now experiencing renewed interest for its hardiness in changing climates.
The Palm House at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew simulates a tropical climate.
In a warm, humid greenhouse, Dr. Aaron Davis separates the branches of a slender plant to reveal a cluster of dark red berries.
This is the Palm House greenhouse at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, London, which simulates a tropical climate. The red berries, called coffee cherries, are processed and roasted to create the beverage loved around the world.
Dr. Davis’ work has been carried out with increasing urgency in recent years.
The results of a recent study suggest that if global temperatures rise by 2°C, countries supplying a quarter of the world’s Arabica will experience significant yield declines. A rise of 2.5°C would have an impact on 75% of supply.
“We need other species of coffee trees that can grow under modified conditions,” he explains. “We find that liberica coffee is more weather resistant than arabica.
Asked what will happen if the coffee market doesn’t adapt, Mr. Davis soberly replies: “We will have less coffee and the prices will go up, but it is the farmers who will be the most affected and the most threat”.
The result of all this might be the transformation of the product contained in our cups of coffee.
Romulo, a Filipino cafe in West London, serves barako coffee, a blend of liberica and arabica beans. It is a traditional product in the Philippines.
“When we grew up in the Philippines, it was prestigious to have Nescafe, whereas the average person drank barako coffee”, explains Chris Joseph, the owner of the establishment.
In front of him, Mr. Joseph scattered a mixture of Arabica and Liberica beans on a plate. Libericas are almost twice as large, regarding a centimeter long, and aesthetically more uniform than Arabicas.
Chris Joseph runs the Romulo Cafe & Restaurant in London, which serves barako coffee.
But what regarding the taste?
“To me, liberica tastes sweet. And maybe nutty as well,” says Joseph.
In the past, liberica was considered an inferior crop to arabica. Its large kernels are more difficult to harvest and process due to their thick skin and pulp, and their taste is generally considered more bitter.
Like robusta, the second most traded coffee bean in the world, it is considered a complementary species rather than the main species.
However, Dr. Davis and his colleagues in Uganda and South Sudan are focusing on a type of liberica that has a smaller grain – called excelsa – and which they believe has a better taste profile.
Either way, the spread of liberica may not be a matter of popularity, but of necessity.
Coffee traders, the middlemen between farms and retailers, are under enormous pressure to meet growing demand. Volcafe is one of the largest traders in the world, processing approximately 600 million kilograms of coffee per year.
“Over the past decade, global coffee consumption has increased by 2% per year,” says Hannah Rizki, global head of research.
At the same time, Volcafe forecasts for the coming year “an unprecedented third consecutive deficit” in production. Ms Rizki explains: “Supply has been lower than demand, and when that happens, global stocks are reduced. We expect these stocks to continue to fall.
As for the prospect of liberica closing the gap, she believes there is “enormous potential”.
“Governments need to get involved and promote different varieties, but also farmers need to understand the varieties they are growing.
Typically, it takes a coffee tree four years to grow from seed to first harvest. This represents a considerable time investment for farmers discovering the species, as well as a risk – fruiting is not guaranteed.
But liberica is already embraced by the International Coffee Organization – the main intergovernmental body for coffee – as part of its mission to strengthen the industry.
Its executive director, Vanúsia Nogueira, who grew up on a small coffee farm in Brazil, says the taste of coffee will likely change with the addition of liberica so the industry can keep up with demand.
This plate contains a mix of arabica and liberica beans, the latter being the largest and longest.
His main concern is with farmers’ livelihoods, as economic insecurity is “an ongoing problem”.
“There are many players in this game. Buyers try to manage the market because they think it is good for them. But there is no chain if there are no producers .
Asked regarding how Volcafe remunerates farmers, Hannah Rizki explains that they “try to make long-term agreements with farmers or suppliers. Sometimes at a minimum price, sometimes set once morest the world coffee reference price” .
She points out that Volcafe recognizes that it has a role to play in supporting farmers.
“It’s a long-term investment for the farmer, but it’s also up to us to encourage this production and give them an incentive price to try these new varieties.
“Without the farmers, we won’t have a cup of coffee, but we won’t have a business either,” she adds.
Back in Kirinyaga County, Mr. Kinyua says low and volatile prices have made him uncertain regarding his future in farming.
“I’m price sensitive. Why wouldn’t I get a high enough price to make sure I produce consistently to support the market?”
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