Text / Liu Zhiming
According to the “Financial News” report, Taiwan stock investors encountered the most painful first half of the year. The market fell by 3,393 points, the worst record since 1990. However, there are also large stocks that bucked the trend. Among them, Yulon has risen in the past two months. The stock price rose from 40 yuan to challenge 50 yuan, which aroused the curiosity of chip investment experts.
The three major foreign investors who retreated from retail investors are very enthusiastic
Li Fang, founder of Leopard Investments, who specializes in domestic research on chip investment, said that Yulon’s recent trend is very consistent with the route tracked by chip experts. It means that when the chip index flows to the big players, once the right time comes, the future rise of Yulon will be predictable.
“Financial News” reported that in the process of this wave of stock price rise, Yulon has continued to increase its weight; since the beginning of this year, the number of Yulon’s large-scale shareholders has increased steadily, from 59 at the beginning of the year to 67 in late June. The shareholding ratio also increased steadily from 64% to 69%. On the other hand, the number of retail investors holding less than 10 copies of Yulon has dropped from 80,000 to 74,000, and the shareholding ratio has also dropped from 12.5% to 10.72%.
Usually, the main worry of the big investors is that following buying the stock, they cannot control the stock price or the stock cannot be sold, so the best operating point is that the shareholding ratio of thousands of large investors falls between 60% and 70%. At this time, the main force has enough chips, and the stock itself can attract retail investors, and the room for stock price growth will be enlarged. At present, the shareholding ratio of Yulon’s large shareholders is close to 70%, which is in line with the basic assumption that the chip data is positive.
Li Fang analyzed that at present, several important securities companies are not weak in buying superpowers. Among them, three foreign securities companies, including Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, and Goldman Sachs, continue to increase their holdings of Yulon, and the cost is between 44 yuan and 45 yuan. The stock market has been revised sharply recently, and Yulon’s share price has also been dragged down, falling to the cost area of large foreign investors. Whether the stock price can remain in the cost support area of large investors above 44 yuan in the future has also become the key to short-term long and short.
According to the “Financial News” report, a major investor in Yulon said that the reason why he personally dared to invest heavily in Yulon when the stock market timing is not good this year is that the stock market has been good in recent years, but Yulon’s share price has hardly risen. After the capital reduction, The share capital is maintained at around 10 billion yuan. At present, the company’s market value is less than 45 billion yuan, but a detailed analysis of Yulon’s three major investment companies, such as Yulon, whose stock price is more than 200 yuan and operates auto loans, Yulon holds 46% of the shares, and the market value of the holdings reaches 450 yuan. billion.
There are bright spots in the eyes of big investors in crisis
There is also Yuri Auto, which holds 48% of the shares, with a current stock price of 228 yuan, and the market value of Yulon’s shareholdings is also 32.9 billion yuan; and Zhonghua Automobile, which holds 8% of the shares, has a market value of 2.7 billion yuan. The combined market value of Yulon, a large-scale investment company, is more than 80 billion yuan. If the stock market improves and reflects the real market value of the investment, Yulon’s share price should still have a good room for growth.
In addition, according to the analysis of “Financial News”, in terms of fundamentals, although Yulon Motor’s main business, due to the remarkable sales performance of domestic Toyota cars, has compressed Yulon’s sales space, but recently, Fubon Securities Research pointed out that although the domestic epidemic situation heats up, automotive chips Affected by factors such as shortages and the strong competitiveness of the Toyota brand, Yulon Nissan sold 10,200 units in Taiwan in the first five months, an annual decline of as much as 22%. However, looking forward to the second half of the year, the shortage of chips will improve, and the epidemic is expected to cool down. With the launch of many new car facelifts, it is estimated that the annual sales of Yulon Taiwan will reach 25,000 units this year, and the annual decline will be reduced to 10%.
As for the Chinese auto market, due to the impact of the city closure in Shanghai, the sales of the auto market in April declined by nearly 50% each month and year. In order to stimulate the recovery of the auto market, the Chinese government will launch a halving of the purchase tax on fuel vehicles below 2 liters in the second half of the year, as well as new More favorable policies such as energy vehicles going to the countryside. The China Automobile Association estimates that China’s auto sales will be 27.5 million in 2022, with an annual growth rate of 4.7%. Yulon operates the Chinese auto market through its subsidiary, Yuri Auto, and will welcome a recovery in the second half of the year.
As for the pros and cons of the follow-up operation of Yulon’s NX brand, “Financial News” reported that it will depend on the Model C electric vehicle platform that Yulon and Hon Hai cooperate with. It is expected to launch the car model pre-sale in the fourth quarter of this year, because this is Hon Hai’s promotion of electric vehicles. The transcripts released by the car market are expected to attract the attention of the market.
Close cooperation with Hon Hai can be expected
Yuanfu Investment Consulting Research Department also pointed out that Yulon provides vehicle R&D and design, open platform sharing and Hon Hai’s integration through ITC, and the joint venture to establish Honghua Advanced is the growth momentum for Yulon’s transformation and profitability in the future. At present, the Hon Hai MIH platform uses an open vehicle-end communication protocol to integrate self-driving-related technologies and ADAS-related supporting facilities for product development. It will successively release three self-developed electric vehicles, Model C SUV, Model E sedan and Model T electric bus. In the future In 1 year, it will enter the process of mass production of prototype vehicles, among which NX will become the first customer of Honghua Advanced in Taiwan, which will drive Yulon’s investment evaluation to pick up.
In addition, according to the “Financial News” report, the Yulon City new store land development shopping mall will start operations in the first half of next year; for the commercial area, the use license can be obtained before the end of this year, and it is expected that the trial operation in the first year will contribute 250 million yuan in rent by 2024. The annual contribution rent can exceed 350 million yuan. Although the residential part is still in the planning stage, the development of luxury housing projects in the next 3 to 5 years will also have the opportunity to contribute nearly 10 billion yuan in development revenue.
The legal person estimates that with the recovery of the auto market on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, the first stage of the development of the Yulon City shopping mall is finalized, and the launch of the Hon Hai electric vehicle, Yulon will have the opportunity to challenge 5.5 to 6 yuan in net profit per share this year, with an annual growth of 26 yuan under the benefit of reinvestment. % above, the fundamentals have improved, no wonder the big players continue to buy.
Major investors who invested in Yulon also revealed that everyone knows the news on the table. The current news in the market is that Hon Hai seems to be discussing plans to invest in Yulon in order to maintain the depth of cooperation with Yulon. One of the highlights. But are the market whispers true? It also takes time to observe.
Further reading:
Fearless of the chip shortage, Chen Lilian: Pushing 4 new cars to market in the second half of 2022
Yulon welcomes the most profitable in 16 years, Yan Chen Lilian holds two major benefits of new cars and assets
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