Mr. Kriengkrai Thiannukul, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) revealed that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Sept. 28 must follow that. will consider raising interest rates or not Initially, many parties expected it to move by 0.25% a year to 1% a year due to high inflation and a weak baht. If it stays the same, it doesn’t change at all. This will further cause the trend of the Thai baht to continue to depreciate. and will pressure Thailand to increase the trade deficit
The Thai baht has a chance of falling 38 baht per US dollar. according to the direction of the US dollar’s appreciation After the Federal Reserve (Fed) recently raised interest rates by 0.75% and will raise interest rates to 4.4% by the end of this year, all currencies will weaken. The same is true for the Thai baht, which, if nothing continues, will drop 39 baht per dollar. and progressively weaker as well Therefore, it must be seen that The MPC will raise interest rates by 0.25% or 0.50%. Personally, I think it should gradually increase more.
As for the baht’s depreciation, there are both positive and negative factors that need to be balanced. That is to say, it will benefit the export and tourism sectors. On the other hand, imports will be higher in terms of raw materials, machinery and, most importantly, The energy that Thailand relies on imports of crude oil is regarding 900,000 barrels per day, not including liquefied natural gas. These more, causing Thailand to pay more, reflected from the latest exports in the first 8 months of 2022 (Jan.-August) with a value of 196,446.8 million US dollars, an increase of 11%; imports are worth 210,578.5 million US dollars. grew by 21.4%, resulting in a deficit of 14,131.7 million US dollars. These deficits were mainly from energy imports.
“Inflation in Thailand is likely to remain high. because when the baht depreciates This will push Thailand’s energy imports higher. when the energy value is high continuation products from oil Including expensive transportation and, of course, that will be followed by higher interest in aggravating financial costs. The more the production focused on the domestic market. The more it affects and eventually has to increase the price of the product. The cost of living for people will eventually be high. Therefore, our interest rate increases gradually. We can do it to support the economy because our inflation context is different from that of the US.”
While Thai exports in August 65, although valued at US $ 23,632.7 million or 861,169 million baht, growing 7.5%, the growth rate will begin to decline below 10%, which is considered a shortening, which reflects The impact of the global economic recession as well However, during the remaining 4 months The growth would not be very hot, making the outlook for exports in 2022 is expected to be at 8%, which must be closely monitored.
