2023-07-28 08:28:49
Despite a gloomy context, linked to high prices and consumption still at half mast, the French economy grew by 0.5% in the second quarter of 2023, according to data published Friday July 28 by INSEE. A much better figure than the expected 0.1%. This good surprise is however tempered by the downward revision of activity in the first quarter (+0.1%, instead of +0.2%). At mid-year, the growth overhang stood at 0.8%, not so far from the assumption of 1% growth for 2023 adopted by the executive in its budget forecasts. In 2022, the French economy grew by 2.5%.
It was exports, up sharply (+2.6%), which enabled economic activity to achieve this good result in the second quarter, while domestic demand remained sluggish: household consumption fell by 0.4%, following a sluggish start to the year. On the other hand, production accelerated over the April-June period (+0.8%, following +0.4% in the first quarter). Another good surprise, business investment has become weakly positive once more (+0.1%, once morest –0.4%).
At the same time, inflation continues to decline slightly: the rise in prices over one year stood at 4.3% in July, instead of 4.5% in June, once more according to data published on Friday 28 July. This decline is explained by a further decline in energy prices and a slowdown in food prices, for the fourth consecutive month.
Weak increase in imports
The Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, immediately welcomed this “remarkable performance” of the French economy, considering that it is “engaged in a virtuous circle where it is production that finances our social model and redistribution”.
Economists draw a somewhat more nuanced conclusion. “The underlying trend is more moderate than this quarterly figure suggests”tempers Nicolas Carnot, director of economic studies and syntheses at INSEE. “The 0.5% growth in GDP is linked to a few one-off factors which will not necessarily recur: the restart of the nuclear fleet, which has allowed a resumption of electricity exports, some naval deliveries – including an ocean liner – and sales transport equipment, a little technical rebound following the end of the strikes in the first quarter. »
The positive contribution of foreign trade to growth (+0.7%) is also due to the weak increase in imports (+0.4%, once morest +2.6% for exports), which reflects the lower consumption and lower energy prices. Finally, Mr. Carnot believes that the diagnosis of growth “hesitant”established during the presentation of the June economic report, “remains quite valid”. “We cannot expect at this stage to maintain the same performance” in the second half of the year, he adds.
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