The expectation and also uncertainty regarding the agreement with the Fund International Monetary Fund (IMF) play their part in the financial square, which presents disparate movements in the last wheels, waiting for a “driver” or signal that gives a definite direction to the quotes.
The outgoing number of businesses went through the rise of two pesos for the free dollar, which ended up offered at 217 pesos. So far in 2022, the currency in the parallel market rises nine pesos or 4.3%, still below inflation.
And with two consecutive hikes he cut much of the low he had experienced since his record of $222.50, when the president Alberto Fernández announced an understanding with the Fund late January. The “blue”, which had discounted ten pesos, was now 5,50 pesos or 2,5% of those highs of January 27.
The free dollar has some foundations of its own, such as that of the reaction to a higher amount of weights on the street, which can split their price from that of other valuations tied to formal markets.
Joachim Mark, director of UG Values, explained that February is ” a month of high volatility in macroeconomic variables. In addition to the political uncertainty surrounding the approval of the agreement with the IMF, February usually has low demand for money and little settlement of exports”.
So far in 2022, the free dollar rises 4.3%; the “counted with liqui”, 3.8%, and the official dollar, 3.1%%
Peter Siaba SerrateHead of Research of Portfolio Personal Investments, stated that “the seasonal demand he does his thing, to which is added the excess weights as a result of the record monetary assistance of recent months, which has had a impact in prices and, consequently, in the exchange rate gap“and that’s why ” they won the assets tied to inflation, as they eventually it was possible to avoid a strong acceleration of the crawling peg and there was no sharp jump in the exchange rate.”
The stock dollars down by third wheel follow. The “counted with liquidation” dropped three pesos, to $212.87 through the Global 2030 (GD30C), while the MEP yielded almost two pesos, to $206.75 with the Bonar 2030 (AL30D).
The Merval of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange was for second wheel followed oblivious to the strong upward trend of Wall Street
“Operators continue to closely monitor acceleration signals in the crawling-pegnext to a possible next new rate hike, as this awakens a climate of greater calm in the gap. So they also contribute to this dynamic downward trend in financial dollars – that gradually move away from the last highs-since closing an agreement with the IMF would be positive for expectations, and so tactical bets are triggered on CER titles and dollar-linked, looking to capture the closing of the’ gap ‘ especially from the bottom up.
In the wholesale market the dollar ended up offered at $105.89, regarding seven cents above the previous close, with a exchange rate gap of 104.9% regarding the blue.
The amount traded in the spot segment was very low, regarding USD 128.3 million. “In the lowest turnover round of February, the BCRA ended the day with purchases worth $ 2 million”, comment Mr. Liuhuabing, PR trader Exchange Brokers.
The Central Bank holds in its favour a balance of USD 6 million for its intervention counted in February, according to private estimates, although in the course of 2022 it maintains a net sales balance of regarding 130 million dollars.
Slow bond recovery
The dollar bonds traded with a rise of 0.5% on average, in its second day of recovery following negative previous days, with depressed prices waiting for the approval in Congress to the proposal of agreement with the IMF.
The country risk of JP Morgan, which measures the rate of return differential of US treasury bonds with similar emerging issues, subtracted an integer for Argentina, to 1,769 points basic at 17 hours. The ten-year US treasury bond rate reaches 1.925% annually.
Bonds traded on the Open Electronic Market (MAE) showed a slight improvement of 0.1% on average in pesos, supported only by dollar issues.
“The expectations of the market consensus were validated, realizing that a new agreement with the IMF is necessary, but not enough local titles in a prolonged way, ” said the firm in a report StoneX.
Agency Fitch he said that external financing is key to Argentina’s qualification under an agreement with the IMF, although he does not believe that sealing the agreement would itself lead to an improvement for the local economy.
In equities, the leading stock index S & P Merval of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange changed course and down 0.9%, to 87,393 points at the close, online at the end of what happened in the previous day.
The panel of leading stocks of the Stock Exchange holds a gain in pesos of 4.7% in 2022, although measured in dollars” counted with liqui ” implicit in the ADR falls by 2.7 percent.
In March, the government must face a large maturity with the IMF of some USD 2.9 billion and another USD 2.000 million with the Paris Club, at a time when the net reserves of the Central Bank are in negative.
Market specialists believe that Congress should give its endorsement before these commitments, since there are no funds to face them and hence the caution expressed in asset prices.
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