Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz, here at the G7 summit in May 2022 in Berlin, meet for a working lunch at the Élysée.
DIPLOMACY – Paris and Berlin pass from status ” in a relationship with “ at ” it is complicated “ so that everyone gets involved. The bad patch that the Franco-German couple is going through is no exception to the rule: as in all famous love stories, everyone has their say.
There are those like Marine Le Pen who play the role of the indelicate friend, telling one of those concerned that she never believed in this idyll. ” Emmanuel Macron constantly follows Germany but Germany does not follow Emmanuel Macron. Defence, industry, energy… The cancellation of the Franco-German summit shows, as we revealed, that there are many disagreements”, tweeted the president of the RN. Others who accuse, like the PS, one of the two parties of being at the origin of the estrangement. ” Recent criticism of Germany remains either disturbing or astonishing “, said for example the first secretary Olivier Faure in a tribune at the Monde.
Even on the side of the actors of this ” love story », Reconciliation begins to emerge. ” There is no alternative to this alliance because we represent around 40% of Europe’s gross domestic product and we are linked by very deep historical ties. No one should doubt it “, declared this Friday Bruno Le Maire in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, calling to to avoid ” the hurtful words between our two countries ».
But how did we get here? The point on a tenacious estrangement which finds its source in the war in Ukraine, and which brings the couple to the last stage before the rupture: the postponement of the traditional Franco-German council of ministers initially scheduled for Wednesday, October 26. It is replaced by a simple working lunch at the Élysée where Emmanuel Macron receives Chancellor Olaf Scholz without a planned statement to the press.
A war that changes everything
On February 24, Russia launched its war once morest ukraine. This has enormous consequences in Europe, in terms of security and energy. For Germany, it is a whole software of thought that must be reviewed, since it is both dependent on the United States on the security level, and on Russia on the energy level. And for good reason, before the invasion led by Vladimir Putin, Russian gas represented no less than 55% of German imports. This placed Berlin in a delicate position and, according to some, caused a small crisis of pride across the Rhine.
« For years, the Germans have made the wrong choices, especially on energy and defence. Today, while everything is changing rapidly, the situation tends to give reason to France’s traditional positions. This is unbearable for the Germans who want to remain the bosses. Their military-diplomatic nomenlactura is pointed once morest France, much more than the population, observe in L’Opinion Jean-Dominique Giuliani, President of the Robert Schuman Foundation.
In fact, France and Germany, self-perceived as the driving forces of the European Union, have multiplied their divergent positions.
These strategic choices that tense up Paris
No love without proof of love. And in view of the latest strategic choices made by Berlin, Paris actually has reason to feel neglected. Shortly following the outbreak of war in Ukraine, Germany announced the modernization of its Defense tool, via the creation of a special fund of 100 billion euros.
Seen at first with a good eye from Paris, where it is considered that France will not be able to sustainably ensure the role of sole military power of the EU, this effort will quickly disappoint. And for good reason, the Germans mainly turned to the United States for equipment (especially for aviation), while Emmanuel Macron has been pleading for a long time for European sovereignty in matters of defence, in a context where Germany is reluctant to spend the second on Franco-German industrial defense projects, such as the plane and the tank of the future (Scaf and MGCS).
What tense Paris, who like a spouse perceives the first signs of estrangement, has seen his fears confirmed. On October 14, Olaf Scholz launched an anti-missile shield project by joining forces with 14 NATO member countries. A device equipped with German, American and Israeli equipment, further distancing the European defense projects promoted by Emmanuel Macron. Which, unsurprisingly, was experienced as an offense in Paris.
Raising and bad manners
In addition to these security differences, there are economic divisions. At the beginning of October, Germany announced – without warning France – a plan to support its economy by 200 billion euros in the face of soaring energy prices. Which, once more, was badly perceived in France, where there is a push for greater European solidarity in the responses to be given to the crisis. In The echoesEmmanuel Macron, who is said to be irritated at having been presented with a fait accompli, himself criticized the possible “ destabilizing effect” that this plan might provoke in Europe.
Especially since this stimulus, which is driving up German spending, is taking place in the most severe country with regard to the deficits of other EU members. Ahead of this Thursday’s European Council, the Head of State publicly raised his voice with regard to Berlin, believing that it “Is it good neither for Germany nor for Europe that it isolates itself”. Especially since other differences are brewing, this time in terms of energy.
On the German side, it is considered that nuclear power is not an energy of the future, while Paris considers, on the contrary, that it is essential in an energy mix aimed at achieving a carbon-free economy. Two opposing approaches which have consequences, in particular on the European electricity market, on which France and Germany express their disagreements.
In Paris, there is a plea for a cap on the price of gas used to produce electricity, which Berlin refuses, which – given its gas addiction — sees this as a supply risk, fearing that a maximum price will encourage producers to turn away from the European market. Never mind, Emmanuel Macron has undertaken to negotiate on this subject with other European countries.
Result: tensions that accumulate and a couple that has a string of disputes, however diplomatic they may be. ” France is our closest ally » et « the relations are quite correct “Commented this Friday a spokesperson for the German government during a press conference, while a parliamentary meeting bringing together the two countries was (also) canceled.
« There’s been a lot of speculation over the past few days, but a lot of it is unfounded. “Assured this same spokesperson, as if to put the breakdown into perspective. Next Wednesday, Emmanuel Macron will receive Olaf Scholz in Paris. The opportunity for the two leaders to patch things up, and give a chance to a relationship that is seriously faltering.
See also on Le HuffPost :
