-The second phase of the fight once morest inflation is launched in the United States. The central bank, following raising its rates very sharply since the spring, is now slowing the pace and has drastically reduced its growth forecast for 2023.
The US central bank (Fed) on Wednesday raised its main interest rate by half a percentage point. This is now in a range of 4.25 to 4.50%, the Fed announced in a press release published following its meeting, stating that the decision was taken unanimously.
This is the highest level since 2007. And the Fed warned that it was not yet time to stop: further increases “will be appropriate”, specifies the institution.
Its officials even plan to make them climb beyond 5.00%, when they anticipated 4.6% in the previous forecasts, published in September.
Less bullish on inflation
This slowdown in rate hikes marks the start of a new phase in the fight once morest inflation, the Fed’s priority for months.
Faced with a rise in prices to their highest level in more than 40 years, the Fed had pulled out the heavy artillery, raising its rates by three quarters of a point on four occasions, a level of increase at which it had previously not had recourse since 1994.
The Fed, however, is a little less optimistic than in September on the path of inflation, and now sees it slowing to just 3.1% in 2023, when it was expecting 2.8% previously, according to the Fed. PCE index that it favors and wants to bring back around 2%.
For 2022, it expects 5.6%, once morest 5.4% three months ago.
It has also drastically reduced its growth forecast for 2023, now counting on 0.5% once morest 1.2% previously. However, it raised it a little for this year, also to 0.5%, once morest 0.2% previously.
The institution does not mention a recession for next year, despite the risks caused by its fight once morest inflation, which might slow down economic activity too much.
As for the unemployment rate, currently 3.7%, she sees it rising to 4.6% in 2023 and 2024, a little higher than the 4.4% she previously forecast.
Slow decline
The Fed’s key rate was, until March, between 0 and 0.25%, a floor level intended to support the economy during the Covid crisis by stimulating consumption.
This had also been driven by the particularly high level of savings of Americans, at the very time when many goods were becoming more difficult to obtain because of the world’s supply difficulties and the shortage of labour. As a result, prices had skyrocketed.
And, if the decline has started, it remains slow.
Inflation thus slowed sharply in November, to 7.1% once morest 7.7% in October, according to the CPI index. This figure, released Tuesday just before the start of the Fed meeting, seems to have finally convinced the guardians of the dollar to ease off on sharp rate hikes.
“The time to slow the pace of rate hikes might come as early as the December meeting,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned in late November.
The effects of the Fed’s decisions take months to be felt. Consumption, therefore, remains sustained, and the job market remains in very good health.
Shortage
The labor shortage faced by American companies forces them to raise salaries to attract candidates and retain their staff.
“I don’t think we’re in a price-wage spiral,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told reporters Thursday.
Joe Biden’s Minister of Economy and Finance estimated that, despite ‘the risks facing the economy’, the United States is ‘on the right track to slow inflation’ and that ‘recession may be avoided’.
The European Central Bank (ECB), which will meet on Thursday, might also move on to the second phase of the fight once morest inflation, and slow down the pace, following having operated since July an unprecedented monetary tightening in its history.
/ATS