Christophe Deborsu’s guests on the program C’est pas tous les jours on Sunday debated the European Commission’s decision to stop importing Russian oil. According to some experts, the consequence of this measure might impact citizens, while having a derisory effect on the war in Ukraine.
A 6th package of sanctions once morest Russia is currently being negotiated between the 27 Member States of the European Union. This package contains an oil embargo by the end of the year, and several questions arise: will this measure have a real impact on the war? Won’t it rather have an impact on our portfolios?
Regarding the impact of this measure on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Sergei Buntman is pessimistic. The deputy editor of the censored Russian radio station Echo of Moscow believes that it is the industrialists, “the big oil hustlers” as he calls them, for whom this measure will pose a problem: “Not for Mr Putin, who is not going to stop his invasion despite all the sanctions, I think. He is too determined, and he is too, I would say, idealistic in his universe. He wants to win this war at all costs, and at the price of oil.“Could Russia then compensate for these losses by selling its oil to China or India?”This will be a disaster for Russian tankers, because the price of oil in India is much lower than those in Europe“says Sergei Buntman.
Another possibility might be to stop the import of Russian gas. This question is debated in the European Parliament, but many are opposed to it, for fear that it will put Europeans in difficulty. However, no longer importing Russian gas might embarrass Vladimir Putin, according to ULiège computer engineer Damien Ernst. “It exports 1,500 terawatt hours to Europe, at market value, it’s 150 billion euros per year. Gas is not a product that is easily transported like oil. If we ban gas imports from Russia, he will not be able to find other buyers for the gas. He will certainly lose 75 or 80 billion euros in funding from his state.“explains Damien Ernst.
What impact on our portfolios?
29% of our oil comes from Russia, making it our most important supplier. There are other alternatives, but they are more expensive. Is this kind of sanction not likely to put our citizens in difficulty? According to Damien Ernst, the price of oil will undoubtedly increase, “especially on diesel” he specifies. But still difficult to say how much this increase will amount to, but he does not exclude that the bar of 3€ will be exceeded one day.
Some politicians are therefore opposed to these sanctions, this is the case of MEP Marc Tarabella (PS), who did not vote for the immediate cessation of the delivery of Russian gas: “That won’t stop the war right away, but what would stop is certain industries, especially in Germany, but not only. We risk putting Europe into recession, with much more difficulty for our citizens who already have a lot“he justifies.
The opportunity to change the model?
Getting out of our dependence on Russian energy might also be an opportunity to turn to certain more sustainable fuels. Wim Dewulf, Secretary General of Energia, cites biofuels as an example: “It is already on the market today, but costs a euro or a euro and a half more compared to conventional diesel“. According to him, excise duty on this fuel should be reduced, so that it is an interesting alternative for the consumer.
Professor of climatology at UCLouvain and former vice-president of the IPCC, Jean-Pascal Van Ypersele goes even further: “The cleanest energy is the one we don’t use”. He refers to the latest report from the International Energy Agency, which includes ten concrete and overnight measures to reduce our consumption of oil and gas: “They say that if the whole of the European Union applied these measures, it would be 220 million barrels less of oil per year and 17 billion m3 gas“explains Jean-Pascal Van Ypersele.
