New York (awp/afp) – The euro stabilized once morest the dollar on Wednesday, still below parity, under the effect of a pause in forex traders as the event of the week approaches: the speech of the president of US central bank (Fed) Jerome Powell on Friday.
Around 7:15 p.m. GMT, the single currency was almost stable (-0.03%) once morest the greenback, at 0.9967 dollars for one euro. The euro recovered slightly once morest the pound sterling, the Swiss franc or the yen.
“There are end-of-month movements but very little liquidity” and market participants, explained Brad Bechtel of Jefferies. “We are waiting for the big moment.”
Like every year, many central bankers and economists meet in Jackson Hole (Wyoming). It is in this context that Jerome Powell must speak, Friday at 2:00 p.m. GMT.
“We expect a sign of firmness,” said the analyst. “But you would really have to have something extreme, either dovish or offensive, for that to trigger a meaningful reaction in the forex market.”
In the meantime, following briefly going back above parity on Tuesday, the euro seemed anchored below this symbolic threshold, weighed down by the energy crisis on the old continent, which has seen the price of natural gas once more reach a peak since March.
“As long as the energy crisis does not stabilize and the markets do not have an idea of the duration of the coming recession in Europe, the euro will remain sealed”, estimated, in a note, Edward Moya, d ‘Oanda.
The “greenback” also kept the euro under water thanks to two American indicators deemed rather satisfactory.
Durable goods orders remained stable in July, when economists expected growth of 1%, but the market held back the index excluding transport, which was slightly higher than expected.
“The trend is still growing at a decent pace, although it has slowed down,” commented Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics in a note.
As for promises to sell in real estate, they only fell by 1%, less than the anticipated 3% decline.
Operators now estimate the probability of a 0.75 percentage point increase in the Fed’s key rate at its next meeting at the end of September at 60%.
While the single currency limited the damage once morest the dollar, the pound sterling suffered once more.
Although the Bank of England’s (BoE) key interest rate is rising higher than the Fed’s in the medium term, which should support the currency, “currency traders are concerned that the pound will depreciate even further”, noted the economists of Pantheon Macroeconomics.
This decline would be generated by the worsening of the United Kingdom’s trade deficit, under the effect of the explosion in energy prices.
Cours de mercredi Cours de mardi
19H15 GMT 21H00 GMT
EUR/USD 0,9967 0,9970
EUR/JPY 136,62 136,36
EUR/CHF 0,9631 0,9610
EUR/GBP 0,8449 0,8423
USD/JPY 137,06 136,36
USD/CHF 0,9663 0,9640
GBP/USD 1,1797 1,1836
afp/rp
