The 12-month Euribor, the most used indicator in Spain to calculate mortgage payments, is heading in January to its first rise following two months, and is expected to close this month at -0.478%, higher or less negative than -0.502% in December, which will entail a small increase in the mortgage. On the last day of the month and pending confirmation of the definitive data of the indicator, something that the Bank of Spain will do next Tuesday, the average Euribor rate reached -0.478% in January, higher than -0.502 in December and -0.487 November, according to Bloomberg data.
This rise in the Euribor will mean that they will have to pay slightly more for the mortgage both those who review it annually, and those who do it every six months. In any case, it represents a change in trend following for several years in each revision the mortgage has been paid less.
The indicator closed December at -0.502%, from -0.48% the previous month, being the fifth month in which the Euribor registered a figure below -0.5%, following those recorded in January, July, August and November. Throughout 2021, the Euribor fell in January to -0.505%, to rise in February to -0.501%; -0.487% in March; -0.484% in April, and -0.481% in May, but it fell once more in June (-0.484%), July (-0.491%) and August (-0.498%). Last September it rose once more (-0.492), the same as in October (-0.477%), to go down once more in November to -0.487%, and in December to -0.502%.
According to the latest data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE), the signing of mortgages for the purchase of a home increased by 24.1% year-on-year last November, up to 36,220 operations, the highest figure in a month of November since 2010. In its latest report on forecasts for the next two years, Bankinter places the 12-month Euribor at -0.3% in 2022 and – 0.2% in 2023, which would mean levels similar to those found at the end of 2019.
In addition, analysts believe that the prolongation of the pandemic and the slower recovery of the economy put a brake on possible measures by the ECB that imply a rate hike, although they believe that interest rate hikes in the US will complicate the negative rate strategy advocated by the ECB. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged last Wednesday in a range between 0% and 0.25%, but announced that the high inflation experienced in the country will mean that there will be a rise probably in March.
