2024-02-28 13:47:00
A series of political decisions made by top leaders of the Chinese Communist Party have caused China’s economic downturn. The consumer economy driven by real estate and the Internet has lost momentum, but the military industry has expanded with the support of the authorities. The picture shows the J-20 fighter jets of the Chinese Communist Army during a military exercise in Inner Mongolia on July 30, 2017. (STR/AFP/Getty Images)
[The Epoch Times, February 28, 2024](Epoch Times reporters Song Tang and Yi Ru interviewed and reported) A series of political decision-making mistakes by the top leaders of the CCP have caused China’s economic downturn. The consumer economy driven by real estate and the Internet has lost momentum, but the military industry The industry is expanding with the support of the authorities. An insider told The Epoch Times that when all walks of life are in recession, projects in the military industry are relatively easy to implement and they are more willing to spend money. They even produce Western weapons and equipment.
Mainland factories making Western weapons? Expert: Eat both sides
Lin Hui (pseudonym), who has had business dealings with the Chinese Communist Party’s military industry in mainland China, told The Epoch Times that he went to three places related to the military industry, all located in the central region. One produced weapons, another produced batteries for submarines and aircraft carriers, and another One produces weapons such as air-to-air missiles.
According to Lin Hui’s introduction, the unit that produces weapons may be a private enterprise. This enterprise only processes metal parts. It has a hall for displaying products, which is three to four hundred square meters in size. The hall is neatly filled with many display cabinets. There are all kinds of aluminum gun parts, many of which are not easy to process. If you come to visit, you may want to make more orders.
“They are all made of aluminum products that are cast and pressed in one step. What kind of process will be entered into next? I don’t know much about it. I can only say that this factory only produces this kind of thing, and this kind of thing is its finished product.”
Lin Hui said that the unit also has a certificate and plaque for “Excellent Collaborating Unit” issued by the China Ordnance and Equipment Group Ordnance and Equipment Research Institute (referred to as Institute 208). Public information shows that the 208th Institute is affiliated to the CCP Ordnance Equipment Group Co., Ltd. and is the only light weapons research and design unit that develops light weapons and equipment for the CCP military and police.
Out of curiosity about these weapon castings, Lin Hui secretly took some pictures, “This factory is easier to take pictures. The unit that produces air-to-air missiles is very strictly controlled. You are absolutely not allowed to take pictures with your mobile phone. The whole process is Someone is accompanying you,” he said.
(Weapon castings photographed by Lin Hui in a factory in central China)
Su Ziyun, director of the Strategy and Resources Institute of the Taiwan National Defense Security Research Institute, made an analysis based on the photos provided by the mainland person.
Su Ziyun analyzed that the first one is the shell of the artillery shell. Since the photo does not reflect the true size of the object, it looks like it may be 122 or 152. It may be the specifications of the Chinese Communist Party and Russia, or it may be the 155 specifications of NATO and the democratic countries of the United States. gun. There is a flat surface on the top of the shell, indicating that the fuze needs to be put into it. The fuze is like a bolt. Before the shell is fired, the gunner will turn a fuze into it. The missile’s warhead is enclosed inside the missile, and the fuze is electronically activated.
The second photo is of a grenade launcher. I can’t tell whether it’s American or Russian. Its bracket can be made of aluminum, and the runner in the middle should be made of steel, which can withstand explosive force.
The third is the standard mecha of the M16 rifle or M4 rifle. The mecha can be made of aluminum. The M16 rifle mecha is made of aluminum alloy to reduce weight. The barrel and bolt are made of steel because they have to withstand the explosive force of gunpowder. .
(The picture shows M16 rifle and grenade gun, Internet picture)
Regarding why there are M16 rifles with Western specifications in the exhibits, Su Ziyun analyzed that he can only say based on the existing evidence that this picture evidence shows that it is probably a sample of Western weapons, not equipment of the Chinese Communist military, and will not be supplied to Russia or the Chinese Communist Party. Military, except for special purposes.
“Because if we want to supply it to Russia, we won’t use this specification. The Western bullet is 5.56, and the Russian bullet is 5.4. The bullets can’t fit in, so it won’t place such an order; if the Chinese Communist military wants to attack Taiwan, it won’t We will produce Western weapon specifications because the logistics cannot match the Chinese military and the bullets cannot be loaded.”
“There may be a special force, for example, a brigade that will be equipped with Taiwanese weapons. Then when attacking Taiwan, this brigade may be pretending to be the national army or something. It will take Western weapons and pick up Taiwanese ammunition on the spot. The weapon can be used immediately, but this is unusual.”
Su Ziyun, director of the National Defense Strategy and Resources Research Institute of the National Defense Security Research Institute. (Zhong Yuan/The Epoch Times)
Have these weapons been added to the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield? Su Ziyun believes that it is not clear that there are no orders yet, but this means that this company may just want to get a share of the pie and show that it has metal processing capabilities. They are capable of producing whether it is Western specifications or Chinese or Russian specifications. NATO equipment can be ordered from them, because NATO troops and Ukraine did order a large number of body armor from China before.
“The display of some Western-standard rifle weapons is probably to seize the supply chain of the Ukrainian battlefield. If Turkey places the order as an agent, then this (so-called) private company of the Chinese Communist Party is tantamount to exporting to Turkey, and Turkey adopts NATO specifications. If it is handed over to Ukraine, it will be used universally.”
“Looking at it from this perspective, the CCP wants to make money from both ends. State-owned enterprises and central enterprises make money from Russia, while private enterprises make money from Ukraine. This possibility cannot be ruled out.” He said, “Everything about the CCP is opaque. We only It can be reasonably estimated.”
The official media of the Chinese Communist Party has repeatedly accused the United States of being a warmonger and making huge war profits. However, the latest research from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) on January 27, 2020 showed that (communist) China has become the second largest arms producer in the world, second only to in the United States and ahead of Russia.
The media has reported that Chinese Communist Party suppliers have taken advantage of both sides on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield. An exclusive investigation by Politico last year pointed out that Chinese equipment worth millions of dollars, from body armor to drones, was appearing on the Russian market. There are also drones that can be used to direct artillery strikes or throw grenades, as well as thermal optics to target enemies at night.
In February this year, Chinese media quoted the RIA Novosti report that containers shipped from China to Poland were seized by Russia when they passed through Russia. A total of 8 containers were found to contain a batch of Ukrainian army uniforms. Russia had also previously displayed Chinese-made civilian equipment seized in Ukraine. Drones, these drones have been changed from civilian use to military use.
However, the U.S. 2022 China Military Power Report stated that quality defects in some of the CCP’s exported weapons still exist and their reliability is low, inhibiting Beijing’s ability to expand its arms export market. Many developing countries purchase Chinese weapons systems simply because they are cheaper than other similar weapons.
China’s military industry is expanding
Lin Hui told The Epoch Times that they are not directly involved in these military projects, but they know that such companies are very profitable and they only deal with military orders. There are very few orders from other industries, but their business is very good and their employees The pay is also high.
“Whether a company has money or not can be seen as soon as you enter. The windows are clear and clean, everything is in order, and they are willing to spend money. There are also various conditions of employees, etc. You can tell at a glance whether the business is good or not.” He said.
Lin Hui said that when all walks of life are in recession, why are projects in the military industry so easy to implement and are willing to spend money? They are constantly building new factories. “For example, the one that produces weapons, when I went there, there was A new factory is under construction. The one that produces air-to-air missiles will spend several hundred million to build a very good and intelligent office building.”
Lin Hui said he was shocked, “Some private enterprises and traditional industries we have contacted have very low project funds, but in the military industry, the prices are very high and the profits are very high. Everyone I like to check out with them, which shows that they have sufficient funds. If the funds are not sufficient, it will be difficult to settle the bill later.”
He said that after the epidemic, many companies had no orders. They had been to the automobile industry, and they used to produce cars on the assembly line 24 hours a day. But after the epidemic, the original two-line production became one-line production. , and this line is not producing 24 hours a day, so the production capacity has dropped, which is obviously different from before.
Due to the lack of funds among Chinese real estate developers, the phenomenon of unfinished properties is common. Schematic diagram. (Shutterstock)
There are traces of the CCP’s vigorous development of military industry. In the CCP’s “14th Five-Year Plan and 2035 Long-term Goals” document in October 2020, it was stated that the external “development environment is facing profound and complex changes” and “self-reliance in science and technology must be regarded as a national development strategy.” Support” etc.
The United States’ 2023 CCP Military Power Report states that the CCP’s long-term goal is to establish a completely self-reliant defense industry sector and integrate it with the civilian industry and technology sectors to meet the military’s needs for modern military capabilities.
Analysts generally believe that the “14th Five-Year Plan” period is an important window period for the CCP’s national defense and military construction. Military industrial enterprises will also usher in rapid development opportunities. Orders in various fields are full, and some models may increase several times. 2020 is known as the turning point year for the Chinese Communist Party’s military industry. First, the Chinese Communist Party’s national defense policy has changed from “steadily advancing the goal of strengthening the military” to “comprehensive preparation for war.” Second, a large number of weapons and equipment have been transferred from scientific research to finalized mass production.
Su Ziyun said that the CCP’s defense budget has been increasing by about 7% every year, and it has been strengthening the replacement of military equipment from generation to generation. Against this background, military industry enterprises will of course continue to grow; in addition, Xi Jinping will pursue military reform between 2017 and 2027. Significantly increase naval equipment, not just ships, but also electronic equipment, carrier-based aircraft, sea and air components; third, the army is also replacing new artillery and missiles.
The U.S. China Military Power Report states that China has mobilized substantial resources to support its defense modernization, including through its military and civil defense development strategies, as well as espionage activities to acquire sensitive, dual-use, and military-grade equipment. Beijing considers the integration of military and civilian agencies to be central to developing AI military capabilities and has established military-civilian R&D centers and procured commercially developed AI and robotics technologies to develop AI technology for the Chinese military.
Su Ziyun pointed out that the so-called dual-use military and civilian technology can, on the one hand, reduce costs through the vast demand of the civilian population, and on the other hand, the strengthening of civilian technology can meet the needs of the military.
“In the past, the CCP relied too much on converting civilians into the military and imported civilian technology from the Western world. As a result, it funded the CCP’s military purposes. Western democracies began to resist, and major Western markets would decouple from the CCP, which would lead to a decline in the private economy.”
Or heading towards the collapse of the Soviet Union
In the past few years, the authorities have suppressed private enterprises on the consumer side. The government’s various industrial funds have guided the direction of technology in the military and choke industries. This trend shows that the CCP’s economic policy goals seem to have returned to the practice of emphasizing military industry over people’s livelihood before Deng Xiaoping’s reform and opening up. Most military industry enterprises are state-owned, with low production efficiency, low technological innovation, severe fragmentation, and rife with corruption. .
Many observers have noticed this. Economist Xu Chenggang told the media that China’s real economic growth power relies entirely on private enterprises. The biggest problem for the authorities is that they have suppressed private enterprises in recent years, which will definitely suppress China’s economic growth.
“They (the Chinese Communist Party) actually want to support state-owned enterprises by attacking private enterprises. They expect China’s economic growth to rely on state-owned enterprises. This is impossible. State-owned enterprises face the basic problem of “soft budget constraints” caused by a very serious system. Why did the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe What if it collapsed? It was because he did not allow the development of private enterprises in the country when he reformed, but only reformed state-owned enterprises, and finally brought them to collapse.”
Last year, Chen Zhiwu, a finance scholar at the University of Hong Kong, told the media that during the Hu-Wen period, the shift shifted from investment and manufacturing to consumption. Now it has been reversed. Consumption and personal-related industries have been reduced, and more resources and policy support have been transferred to national defense and transportation. Go to the technical parts of the neck.
“Actually, it didn’t just start today. It has been slowly moving in this direction for the past ten years. It’s just that in the past two years, this structural adjustment has been very prominent. In this sense, the education and training industry, electronics industry, etc. The technological innovations and business model innovations of the cigarette industry, game consoles, electronic games, and Meituan, etc. that focus on the “last mile” must be suspended. This is a structural adjustment.”
Chen Zhiwu said that with the deterioration of geopolitics, the prospect of armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea in the future, and the deepening of the new Cold War hostility between the United States and China, the two camps are becoming increasingly clear. Few multinational companies are willing to take such risks, decoupling is accelerating, and China’s export industry faces fundamental challenges.
“It turns out that in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, everyone only talked about making money together, regardless of ideology, but it has completely changed. Not only will they look at the price, but they will also look at who you are, what your beliefs are, and what your country is. What is the system? These will have an impact on China’s export growth in the future.”
Chen Zhiwu said, “The original economic growth structure of the Soviet Union was also like this. Those Soviet industries related to national defense and war have always received attention. And those related to people’s lives, such as bread making, clothing making, and light industry, the Soviet Union Time is very downplayed.”
Su Ziyun said that China’s economic downturn is the result of the perverse actions of the Chinese Communist Party. The West has retreated from red industries, private enterprises have gradually decoupled from China due to global trade, and private trade has shrunk.
“Politically, Xi Jinping is a superstitious Cold War mentality. That is, if you want powerful ships and artillery, you need to develop military industry. Developing military industry can boost part of the economy. This is his logic.”
“Objectively speaking, the development of military equipment can produce economic benefits, but if it is excessive, it will be like the Soviet era, leading to the collapse of the private economy, leaving only this kind of military heavy industry, and then of course the country will collapse.” He explain.
Editor in charge: Lin Yan#
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