The energy crisis that the world is experiencing is different from the oil shock of the 1970s, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) advised on Monday in an analysis, at a time when central banks are fighting once morest inflation.
« Current events are often compared to the oil shocks of the 1970s, but the global economy is very different today“, observed Fernando Avalos and Wenqian Huangn, economists for the BIS, in a study accompanying the quarterly report of the institution and published recently.
New challenges have emerged, with natural gas and renewables now having a crucial role in power generation, they said, also mentioning the interaction between oil and agricultural markets through “non-existent” biofuels. at the time.
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An increase ” broad and persistent Oil prices are also likely to push up the prices of crops used to produce ethanol or biodiesels, economists have warned.
Unlike the 1970s, they noted that oil now weighs much less heavily in electricity generation, while gas has gained in importance since its consumption has doubled in thirty years.
Natural gas shocks are therefore likely to have an impact substantial on electricity prices and, by extension, on industry, which on average represents more than 40% of total global consumption, the BIS economists explained.
With MAP
