All as widely expected. The first round of the legislative elections in France sees the clear prevalence of the Rassemblement National led by Marine Le Pen, which the exit polls, at the time of going to press, credit with 33.5%. This would be a growth of a further 3 points compared to the already very positive result of the European elections. The New Popular Front, a cartel of left-wing movements (from reformist socialists to melancholics and ecologists) stands at 28.5%. The “Ensemble” coalition, headed by President Emmanuel Macron, is stuck at just over 20%. A very popular round with the latest forecast marking around 65% of those entitled to vote who went to the polls (18% more than in 2022). Now, therefore, eyes are on the run-off round, where those parties that have exceeded 12.5% of the consensus will advance, unless no candidate has achieved an absolute majority in the first round. In this sense, an estimate by Ipsos yesterday evening quantified between 65 and 85 seats assigned in yesterday’s round.
Looking ahead to next Sunday, there could be 285 to 315 “triangular” and 150 to 170 duels. Therefore, yesterday’s first outings have already been calibrated with this in mind. Macron called for a “large republican bloc” to stop the advance of the Le Penists. This invocation was immediately taken up by both his own coalition, Ensemble, and by the exponents of the New Popular Front. Thus, the plan for the withdrawal of the candidates who will be in third place at the starting blocks next Sunday is being promoted. The dramatization of the final stretch of the road in view of the decisive appointment seems to be a constant in the red bloc. This can be seen in the words of Rafael Glucksmann, leader of “Place publique”, a formation that is part of the socialist galaxy: “We have seven days to avoid a catastrophe for France”.
It is difficult, however, that between Macronians and the Popular Front an arithmetic sum of the votes obtained in the first round can be achieved. In the Rassemblement, they are already looking at the prospect of government. Jordan Bardella, who could be Prime Minister (the youngest in the history of France to hold that position), speaks of a “verdict without appeal”, and promises: “I will be the Prime Minister of all”. The leader of the party, Marine Le Pen, warns: “We need an absolute majority”. And again: “It is the beginning of the end of Macron”. The positioning of the Gaullists remains unknown (even if it seems very difficult for them to vote for the left bloc). While the party, in a note, announces that no indications will be given for the second round, the leader Eric Ciotti (who had given his support to the RN, starting a legal battle within his party), looks in the direction of a victory for Bardella: “We can lift this country up and give it a future worthy of its glorious past”.
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2024-07-04 19:30:10