Rarely had the Constitutional Council’s decision been so awaited. And it is surely a big “phew” of relief that the head of state felt when he learned of it. But if this is good news for Emmanuel Macron since his pension reform passes the validation of the Constitutional Council, and in particular the postponement of the legal age from 62 to 64 years old, the rest is no less difficult to write. The Head of State has fifteen days to promulgate the law. It is likely that he will not delay, he who hopes to quickly move on to something else. ” Stay the course is my motto “, he assured this Friday morning, before the announcement.
Facing a challenge that will become radicalized
The first difficulty will be to manage the dispute, which will continue with its reform, were it adopted. Already enamelled with tensions in recent days, the mobilization will continue here and there, and bring together only the most radical. Some unions such as the CFDT have already explained that for them the decision of the Elders would be ” legit “. But not everyone sees it that way. This validation is therefore far from marking an end to the dispute, as evidenced by several spontaneous mobilizations that have taken place in several cities since the announcement of this decision. The State also deployed significant security measures.
The outbursts of violence are expected, especially since most of the provisions invalidated by the Council are considered to be the most favorable provisions for workers, among them the senior index – which the employers did not want -, but also the referendum of popular initiative (RIP). What irritate even more the opponents. Nonetheless, a second RIP has been filed and the Council’s opinion will be given on May 3.
A link to recreate with the unions
A few minutes before the announcement of the decision of the Constitutional Council, the Head of State announced that he proposed to the social partners to receive them on Tuesday. And add ” whatever the decision … It will necessarily be the beginning of a cycle … (…) The door of the Elysée will remain open for this dialogue ” more “without prerequisite”.
This invitation should remain a dead letter. The CFDT was not once morest an exchange with the President, but Laurent Berger, the leader of the reformist union, had made it known that he wanted a period of convalescence. Emmanuel Macron did not take this into account, proposing a quick exchange. Yet another illustration, if still needed, of the deep divergence and animosity that exists between the President and the trade unionist, who in this sequence has become his first opponent.
The CGT was not in favor of this meeting if the agenda did not include the withdrawal of the reform. Sophie Binet, the union’s new boss, flatly refused.
For his part, François Hommeril, the leader of the CFE-CGC explained this Friday: “If Emmanuel Macron wants to bring us together to tell us that he has decided to withdraw the law, yes, we will go there… but if it is to divert the attention of the French people from what is the subject of the crisis democratic, it will be difficult. »
If this meeting proposal gave rise to debates within the inter-union, which for more than 2 months now has been advancing hand in hand, it ended in failure. Indeed, this Friday evening, anxious to show the maintenance of a form of unity, the inter-union published a joint press release, in which it means that it does not wish to meet the president before May 1st. She calls “solemnly” also the head of state not to promulgate the text “. A call like a last blow in the water.
The inter-union, however, plans to meet next Monday to define the follow-up to be given to the movement. But it is unlikely that the power stations will consider a new day of action, like the twelve previous ones organized since January They have planned to meet, in a somewhat specific setting, on May 1, on the occasion of the international holiday labor, for a unitary and popular demonstration.
But, following the validation by the Council of this reform, and once May 1 has passed, what regarding this alliance of the 8 power stations? A union recomposition is to be expected.
Reconquer opinion.
This will perhaps be the most difficult and insidious challenge for Emmanuel Macron. While the French remain very divided on the substance of this reform, the decision of the Constitutional Council promises to leave its mark, especially in its electorate. Because beyond the flagship measure, – the postponement of the age -, this text will remain as unprecedented in its form – adoption via a 49.3, of a Social Security amending bill – and in its adoption. For many French people, this legislative journey reveals a weakening of democracy. It carries the risk of accentuating the estrangement from politics, including Macron.
In this context, Emmanuel Macron wants to quickly regain control and address the French next week. The form is not yet determined. ” He intends to resume meetings with them, as soon as the atmosphere in the country has subsided a little “, assures his entourage. The Head of State wants to get the country on board around new subjects, such as the Full Employment Act – whose measures will seek to improve careers, and review the relationship to work. To regain breath, as his person was also targeted. Not easy in a context of high inflation, – especially food, where the fear is that the revolt once morest pension reform, is now once morest the cost of living.
Reconnect with Elisabeth Borne
This sequence will have strained the ties between Emmanuel Macron and his Prime Minister. The latter is also the first to have reacted to the decision of the Constitutional Council, via a tweet, tinged with appeasement: “There is no winner or loser” It is up to her, however, to succeed in calming the protest movements, to reconcile the French, to regain a form of credibility. But also to rebuild ties with unions, elected officials and its majority. And, finally, to restore dynamism to this first year of the five-year term. Otherwise, his fate might be quickly sealed.
Resolve a weakened majority
Finally, Macronie comes out tested and weakened by these three months of conflict. Between those who do not approve of the reform, those who are divided, those who have taken blows… how to heal the wounds and find unity? Beyond the Renaissance elected officials, this pension issue has also made relations with groups like Horizons or the Modem more complex. The question of future allies will also arise.
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