The Egyptian Stock Exchange ends another year of its dealings, within a few sessions, in a year characterized by fluctuations and sharp fluctuations, affected by global events, led by the Russian-Ukrainian war, which controlled the performance of international markets and stock exchanges for long periods of the year, especially in its first half, while the last months of the year carried news Happy for the investors of the Egyptian Stock Exchange, with the state’s increasing efforts to deal with the economic crisis and the changes witnessed by the leaders of the capital market, which led to a significant recovery of the indices.
After suffering that lasted throughout the first seven months of 2022, affected by the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis in March 2022, during which the Egyptian Stock Exchange index lost more than 3,500 points and its capital amounted to regarding 180 billion pounds, the market recovered starting from the beginning of August coinciding with the changes in the capital market leaders and optimism. Which prevailed among the investors, so that the Stock Exchange began a successful journey of recovery, in which it compensated for all its losses. Rather, the losses turned into gains that approached 200 billion pounds, so that the market capital of the Stock Exchange in mid-December touched the level of one trillion pounds for the first time since April 2018.
The correction of conditions witnessed by the Egyptian Stock Exchange in the last third of the year 2022 increases expectations of the market’s ability during the new year 2023 to break all of its previous records. This is supported by many positive news, most notably Egypt’s reaching a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund, and serious steps by the state to complete The economic reform program, increasing dependence on the private sector, recovering tourism, increasing Suez Canal revenues and exports, and fading the foreign exchange crisis.
Economic expert Hani Geneina says that the Egyptian stock exchange indices have achieved a recovery of up to 70% since last June, as an indication of entering the recovery phase following the loss of confidence that the money market suffered from during the previous periods, indicating that the Egyptian stock exchange has started In recent months, institutional investment, whether domestic or foreign, has returned, coinciding with the tendency of regional strategic investors to seize influential shares in major Egyptian companies.
Genena expected that the first half of 2023 will witness a continuation of the recovery phase in the Egyptian Stock Exchange, with the possibility of doubling the numbers and values of acquisition deals, which may push the shares of the targeted companies and companies engaged in similar activities to continue to rise.
Economic expert Hani Genena predicted that the first half of the new year would witness a noticeable improvement in the purchasing power on the Egyptian Stock Exchange, with an expected improvement in the economic scene as a result of the improvement in global and local conditions, and the expected decline in risk rates in the market.
He pointed out that the improvement of the economic scene will reflect positively on the performance of companies by the end of next year 2023, with higher operating rates, a solution to the dollar crisis, and the stability of the exchange market, which may create a great impetus towards continuing to buy shares on the Egyptian Stock Exchange at the end of the year and the beginning of the next year 2024.
Geneina believed that the availability of the dollar and the stability of the exchange market will also lead to the return of American and European funds to the Egyptian market with large values, especially in the leading stocks, which may support the continued rise of indices, so that the main market index targets the level of 25 thousand points at the end of the year 2023.
He also predicted that if the economic conditions are more stable, especially if the US Federal Reserve begins to reduce interest rates, this will lead to the shift of many economic sectors and companies to expand projects, coinciding with the expectations of corporate profits growth in the future.
For his part, Samir Raouf, a financial market expert, said that the main stock index started the year 2022, near the level of 12,000 points, and the small and medium stock index was at 2,300 points, before it witnessed violent waves of decline affected by the continuation of the capital gains tax crisis and the continued impact of corporate business by the pandemic. Corona and the fluctuations in global stock exchanges.
He added that the onset of the food and energy crisis in some regions of the world, and emerging markets being greatly affected by the Russian-Ukrainian war had an impact on the Egyptian economy and thus the Egyptian Stock Exchange, in which trading volumes fell to levels that are the lowest in 4 years, which was reflected in the performance of general indices and stocks. The main stock index fell to around 8,600 points, with its market capitalization below 600 billion pounds.
Raouf pointed out that the second half of the year witnessed changes in the leaders of the capital market, which caused great optimism, which was reflected in the liquidity rates in the stock exchange, accompanied by the government’s announcement of serious plans to develop the capital market and revitalize the stock market. This coincided with huge Gulf investments to acquire shares in Egyptian companies that succeeded in Turning the stock market’s rudder towards a strong recovery, to gain more than 380 billion pounds from the lowest level it recorded during the year, bringing its market capital to close to 1 trillion pounds.
He pointed out that the Egyptian Stock Exchange witnessed, in the last third, huge liquidity rates and historic daily trading volumes, thanks to the flexibility shown by the Central Bank in dealing with the exchange market and reaching a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund, and the news of revising the capital gains tax law on the stock exchange to exceed the daily trading barrier of two billion pounds. The stock index is regarding 15,000 points.
Money market expert Samir Raouf expected the recovery to continue in 2023 with the decline in risks in the Egyptian economy as well as emerging markets as a result of expectations of a decline in the severity of global crises, indicating that in the event that no new crises emerge at the local or global levels, market indicators are likely to break their previous records. achieved in 2018.
Raouf believed that the main index of the Egyptian Stock Exchange may target the level of 18,000 points, during the next year 2023, while the index of small and medium stocks may aim to reach the level of 8,000 points, naming the investment, banking, financial services, technology and food sectors to lead the activity of the stock exchange during the next year.
Even before the start of trading in the last week of 2022, the market capital gains of the Egyptian Stock Exchange amounted to 181 billion pounds, reaching 947 billion pounds, and it had recorded 996 billion pounds in mid-December as the highest level, and it recorded 584 billion pounds as the lowest level in early July. In the past, the main stock index / EGX30 / achieved gains of 21.2 percent, recording 14,482 points, and the lowest level it recorded during the year was at 8,600 points in early July, and the highest level was at 15,400 points on December 14.
