2023-11-03 16:52:24
Published on Nov 3, 2023 at 9:22 a.m.Updated Nov. 3, 2023 at 5:52 p.m.
In its latest economic report, INSEE had significantly revised downwards its employment forecasts for the second half of the year, anticipating stagnation . The provisional estimate that the national statistics institute published this Friday for the third quarter goes in this direction, and even a little more.
From the publication, which only concerns the private sector and which will be confirmed or not in mid-December with the final figures, it appears that the number of employees fell by 17,700 between the end of June and the end of September, slightly more than expected. . That is to say a drop of 0.1%, following the increase of the same order during the previous quarter.
PIB a berne
“This is the second quarter of quasi-stability following several quarters of clear increase in 2021 and 2022,” commented INSEE. Private salaried employment still exceeds its level of one year earlier by 0.7% (+138,800 jobs) and that before the health crisis (end of 2019) by 6% (+1.2 million jobs).
Temporary employment fell for the third consecutive quarter, by around 40,000 positions, to the point of being slightly below its level before the health crisis. Excluding temporary work, the private sector workforce experienced varying fortunes, but all moderate: -0.2% for agricultural employment; +0.2% in industry; -0.3% in construction; stability in the commercial tertiary sector; slight decline in the non-market tertiary sector…
21.126
million jobs in the private sector according to a provisional estimate at the end of September from INSEE
If we put aside the year 2020, we have to go back to the third quarter of 2018 to find a decline in the number of employees. At the time, it remained episodic. Today, the slowdown in the labor market once once more goes hand in hand with the development of GDP, which increased by only 0.1% in the third quarter.
This correlation puts an end to two post-Covid years during which employment growth exceeded that of activity, to the great astonishment of economists and to the detriment of the productivity of the economy. After the euphoric quarters of 2021 and 2022, should we detect the beginnings of a turnaround or a pause while waiting for activity to resume?
For INSEE, it is still too early to say. “We will have to wait a few months before talking regarding a turnaround, we are looking at developments which remain quite measured over two quarters,” commented the head of the synthesis and economic situation of the labor market division at INSEE, Yves Jauneau, quoted by the AFP.
Mirroring employment, the unemployment rate has also stopped its sharp decline and stagnated at around 7.3% of the active population. While the government is still aiming for a reduction, year following year, to reach 5% at the end of the five-year term, i.e. full employment, the OFCE is more pessimistic.
In its economic report published in mid-October, the forecasting and research organization expects a rise to 7.9% at the end of next year under the effect of a double movement: the marked increase in the population active due to the implementation of the pension reform, to which is added the drop in employment due to sluggish growth and the partial recovery of past productivity losses.
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