2023-12-15 21:51:55
Major U.S. stock indexes mostly closed in the red on Friday (15th),Dow JonesThree consecutive days of record highs. After investors digested this week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting and inflation data, major indexes rose for a seventh consecutive week, with the S&P 500 recording its longest winning streak in six years.
Dow Jones IndexIt rose regarding 2.9% this week.S&P 500 Indexrose 2.5%,Nasdaq Composite Indexrose nearly 2.9%. Among them, the S&P 500 set its longest consecutive weekly rise since September 2017.
The Federal Reserve admitted on Wednesday (13th) that its efforts to curb inflation are paying off, suggesting it will cut interest rates at least three times in 2024. The news boosted investor sentiment and drove U.S. stocks higher this week. In addition, following data showing that inflation has cooled, November retail sales released on Thursday (14th) were better than expected, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve may achieve a soft landing.
Nonetheless, New York Fed President John Williams said in an interview on Friday that cutting interest rates is not a topic currently being discussed by the central bank. “We’re not really talking regarding cutting interest rates right now. We’re very concerned regarding the issue at hand, as Chairman Ball said, is monetary policy reaching a sufficiently restrictive stance to ensure that inflation returns to the 2% target? That’s a question for us. The problem at hand.”
Investors continue to assess the impact of the Federal Reserve’s recent policy changes. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield fell below 4% on Friday to its lowest level since July.10-year U.S. Treasury yieldThis week it fell 31.7 basis points to 3.913%, the largest weekly decline since November last year.
The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its latest semi-annual forecast, which shows that as economic growth and labor market activity cool down, U.S. inflation is expected to slow down, and the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) is expected to fall to 2.1 in 2024. %, and 2.2% in 2025. Core PCE, which excludes energy and food costs, is expected to slow to 2.4% and fall to 2.3% in 2025.
The CBO’s inflation forecast is more optimistic than the Fed’s. According to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released by the Federal Reserve this week, the Fed predicts that PCE will fall to 2.4% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025.
In terms of economic data, the latest survey by the New York Federal Reserve Bank showed that the New York manufacturing index fell to -14.5 in December, a four-month low, reflecting that the manufacturing industry continues to be in trouble. The S&P Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also showed weakness in the U.S. manufacturing sector, while service sector activity rose to a five-month high.
Performance of major U.S. stock indexes on Friday (15th):
- US stocksDow Jones IndexIt rose 56.81 points, or 0.15%, to close at 37,305.16 points.
- S&P 500 IndexIt fell 0.36 points, or -0.01%, to close at 4,719.19 points.
- Nasdaq Composite IndexIt rose 52.36 points, or 0.35%, to close at 14,813.92 points.
- Philadelphia SemiconductorThe index rose 19.53 points, or 0.48%, to close at 4,117.00 points.
- The NYSE FANG+ index rose 63.85 points, or 0.75%, to close at 8,611.57 points.
Of the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, only technology, communications and consumer discretionary stocks ended in the red, with utilities and real estate stocks falling the most. (Photo: Finviz) Focus Stocks
Among the five technology kings in the NYSE FANG+ index, only Apple closed in the red. apple (AAPL-US) fell 0.27%; Meta Platforms (META-US) rose 0.53%; Alphabet (GOOGL-US) up 0.50%; Amazon (AMZN-US) rose 1.73%; Microsoft (MSFT-US) rose 1.31%.
Dow JonesComponents were evenly split. Boeing (BA-US) rose 3.13%; Intel (INTC-US) rose 2.17%; Salesforce (CRM) rose 1.71%; Cisco (CSCO-US) rose 0.87%; JPMorgan Chase (JPM-US) rose 0.76%; Verizon (VZ-US) fell 1.32%; Johnson & Johnson (JNJ-US) fell 1.09%.
half feeComponents were mixed. Intel (INTC-US) rose 2.17%; Broadcom (AVGO-US) rose 2.10%; Qualcomm (QCOM-US) rose 1.15%; Huida (NVDA-US) rose 1.12%; AMD (AMD-US) rose 0.83%; Colin R&D (LRCX-US) rose 0.82%; Micron (MU-US) fell 0.95%; TSMC ADR(TSM-US) fell 0.88%.
Taiwan stock ADR is exhausted. TSMC ADR(TSM-US) fell 0.88%; ASE ADR(ASX-US) fell 0.44%; UMC ADR(UMC-US) fell 0.49%; Chunghwa Telecom ADR(CHT-US) fell 0.98%.
Corporate News
Intel (INTC-US) closed up 2.17%. Analysts at Bank of America (BofA) raised their rating on the stock to “Neutral” from “Underperform” and raised their target price to $50 per share from $32. The chipmaker launched Core Ultra laptop processors on Thursday to aggressively tap into the AI market.
Tesla (TSLA-US) closed up 0.98% on Friday.
Costco (COST-US) ended 4.45% higher. The large-scale mass merchandiser announced its last quarter financial results following the market closed on Thursday, with both revenue and profits better than expected, and it announced a dividend of $15 per share.
Jingdong ADR(JD-US) closed at a dividend of 4.46%, Alibaba ADR(BABA-US) rose 2.76%. The two Chinese technology companies have been boosted by the prospect of further stimulus measures by the Chinese government to boost the economy.
Economic data
- The New York Fed manufacturing index in December was -14.5, 4 expected, and the previous value was 9.1
- U.S. industrial production increased by 0.2% in November, expected to be 0.3%, and the previous value was -0.6%
- The U.S. capacity utilization rate in November was reported at 78.8%, which was expected to be 79.1% and the previous value was 78.7%.
- The preliminary value of the S&P Services PMI in the United States in December was 51.3, which was expected to be 50.7, and the previous value was 50.8.
- The preliminary value of the S&P Manufacturing PMI in the United States in December was 48.2, compared with the expected 49.5, and the previous value of 49.4
Wall Street Analysis
Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise Financial, believes that it is reasonable for U.S. stocks to digest expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2024. 10-year U.S. Treasury yieldThe decline helped boost stocks. He predicts that the Fed may start cutting interest rates from June, and the U.S. economy will slow down to a “sustainable” growth rate next year, with the growth rate likely to fall between 1.8% and 1.9%.
CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows that federal funds futures traders expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates as early as March. Price said traders’ bets on rate cuts appeared to be “too far ahead.”
Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E-Trade, said: “Wednesday’s Fed meeting gave a big boost to stock market sentiment, but the immediate impact is sure to fade. No matter how strong the trend, stocks don’t rise every day. Corrections and pauses are inevitable.”
Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, said: “The S&P 500 is up at least 10% in less than two months, so the market has to price in some rebound. This may happen in the short term, especially if the Fed Officials are expected to make comments over the next week or two that may dampen market enthusiasm.”
The figures are all updated before the deadline, please refer to the actual quotation.
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