2023-04-24 16:25:00
Last Friday the president, Alberto Fernandezannounced his decision to not stand for re-electionwhich caused a negative day for Argentine actions in the United States and a slight increase of country risk.
However, in the local stock market and national bonds profits were recorded during the day. He dollar blue continued its upward trend this Monday April 24. Illegal currency opened to $450 for sale and $445 for purchase.
The index S&P Merval It is located at 294,072, 77 points with a rise in the early hours of the morning of 1.1% following a rise of 3.21% on FridayMeanwhile he MERVAL in dollars is located in the US$ 644,85 with a rise of 0.9% in the first hours of the wheel.
Fernández moves the market waters: the dollar rises and the bonds shoot up in value
The shares that make up the Argentine stock index operate mostly upwards, like the bonds in dollars and pesos. For CEDEARS it’s a mixed morning, but in general they operate in green.
However, with a local market brimming with uncertainty and volatilityboth in sovereign bonds and in shares, the slightest political decision of the Government might alter Argentine assetsSo, how do you explain the positive performance of Argentine financial assets following Fernández’s decision?
The price of the dollar is not linked to Fernández’s decision
for the market in general Alberto Fernandez he no longer had any political chance of re-election. What is happening with the dollar is due more to the problems of lack of foreign currency in the Central Bank and the inflationary situation thatIt looks out of control”, the lawyer pointed out to PROFILE Paul ScaglioneFinancial Advisor.
“Bonds are reacting Positive before Fernández’s withdrawal from the presidential race. We’ll see how it evolves, the market doesn’t expect there to be some kind of re-election for this government either. The expectations of the market are set in that they were not going to win even if they presented themselves”, he pointed out in the same line Salvador Vitellifinance, agribusiness and market analyst.
“In any case, the loss of Fernández, without a doubt it generates a kind of positive reaction for the market and this is reflected above all by ADRs, however, the political part is better reflected by bonds than by shares,” he added. Calves regarding being consulted by this medium.
“The resignation of the candidacy of the current President cleared a factor of uncertainty, and that generated that there is one less variable to define in the analysis of market participants, for this reason it might be said that it was received well”, he pointed out for his part. Walter Naumanncertified financial adviser (AFC) and Ideal in Capital Market.
He added: “However, I don’t think it’s something that has caused or will generate a high impact either by itself, because although it is a politically weighty announcement, it was not so decisive for the market or the economy either; since Fernández’s management is coming to an end and we do not expect there to be a reversal of results what has been done so far.”
“Regarding the rise of the dollar, it is a factor that has other different condiments to which to add Alberto politicallyand that lies in the great shortage of foreign currency that the Central Bank has, the problems of raising genuine dollars and that during the past week the so-called agricultural dollar 3 began with lower than expected results. The exchange rate and inflationary issue It is very sensitive and will continue to be. until at least I PASS them”, he asserted Naumann in line with the other analysts consulted.
What regarding Argentine stocks?
“Argentine actions They have been improving their performance for a few months nowand I believe that this is due in large part to the expectation of a future change of governmentmore friendly with the market”, commented Scaglione.
For every point that Milei rises in the polls, do dollars leave the banks?
“This trend has been taking place since he took office (Sergio) Massa in the Ministry of Economy and allowed the shares make up some lost groundalthough there is still a long way to go to return to the values of 2017and I doubt that it will achieve it in the short term ”, predicted the analyst.
Taken for granted: a pro-market government
“Argentine shares that are listed abroad have risen, it is true, in recent days, but they came from several accumulated negative days. It is necessary to see that if external investors vin a more market-friendly government for next yearADRs will be one of the instruments, surely the most reliable and sure that the bondswhich they will use to position themselves in Argentine assets,” he added. Naumann online with Echelon.
“Some of this has been observed since last year, since since May 2022 YPF has multiplied by 4 its price in dollars on Wall StreetTGS has doubled its value in dollars, Grupo Galicia has also doubled, Pampa Energía has earned 70% in dollars in the same period, to name a few ADRs”, he said.
SE
You may also like
1682353975
#dollar #rises #par #shares #decision #Alberto #Fernández