Samar El-Khoury wrote in Markaziya:
Central – Less than three weeks separate Christmas and New Year’s. Although there was hope for a relative economic breakthrough in light of the difficult circumstances, the rise in the exchange rate of the dollar in the parallel market came like a thunderbolt, as since the beginning of the week it has recorded an unprecedented rise, crossing the threshold of 41 thousand pounds upwards, accompanied by an exorbitant price tag for various goods and services! What are the reasons for this rise, and is there still hope for its decline?
The head of the Money Changers Syndicate in Lebanon, Antoine Maroun, believes through Markazia that the fate of the dollar is related to political stability. The best evidence is what happened in Europe in terms of the deterioration of the euro during the Russian-Ukrainian war.
And he confirms that the rise in the dollar market is currently unfounded from an economic point of view, since the actual position of the dollar today ranges between 30 and 32 thousand pounds as a maximum, and what we are witnessing, in his opinion, is a rise in the price of the “political dollar.”
Maroun explains that the dollar is present in abundance in the markets, and 95% of the Lebanese people own it and do not want it to decrease, and this is what we are seeing on the ground, says the captain, who refuses to set a ceiling for the dollar’s rise, stressing that it is not possible to know what the price of the dollar will become, except that Indicators note that its trend will be upwards, but gradually.
Maroun identifies a number of factors that would lower the dollar, namely:
– Political stability that relieves the dollar market
– The goodwill of the parties to elect a president of the republic that would reduce the dollar to regarding 15,000 pounds immediately, provided that he is not a defiant president, so that we do not repeat the experience of the previous six years.
– The tourism movement, so the large influx of expatriates and tourists during the holidays, would move the economic wheel, and if their stay in Lebanon lasts for a long time, the dollar will decrease, especially since tourists and expatriates will pump it abundantly into the markets.
As for the “political tension”, the rumors, theories and propositions spread by politicians and analysts are likely, according to Maroun, to raise the dollar, which is turning day following day into a means of political pressure.
Another negative factor that would raise the dollar is inflation, and here Maroun is afraid of repeating the experience of the salary scale. Pumping the Lebanese currency to cover it has a negative impact on the dollar exchange rate, and thus reliance remains on pursuing the reform method, instead of useless patches.
