2023-11-08 07:00:03
Argentina, Pakistan, Tunisia and Sri Lanka are the countries whose situation has deteriorated the most in less than five years, according to a study carried out by the Center for Global Development (CGD).
Emerging countries have emerged overall more weakened from the chain of crises that have affected the global economy since the start of the pandemic, which pushed some of these countries, such as Argentina, Pakistan or Tunisia, into a situation difficult economy. The three countries, with Sri Lanka, are, unsurprisingly, those whose situation has deteriorated the most in less than five years, according to a study carried out by the Center for Global Development (CGD), called the Indicator of Resilience. Three of these countries are in fact currently under an aid program from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) while the fourth, Tunisia, has suspended negotiations with the institution, refusing to implement the reforms that the IMF recommended to validate obtaining the loan.
More broadly, 60% of the countries monitored by the study now have a public deficit greater than 4%, i.e. twice as much as in 2019, the year of the previous study. Worse, almost a third of the countries studied face an external financing need close to 100%, i.e. around a dozen countries, while only the four cited above were concerned in 2019.
“Emerging markets are more vulnerable today, as a whole, than they were. We need to pay attention to the warning signs and it is critical to identify the countries that are most vulnerable,” said in a press release the creator of the Indicator and director for the Latin America Initiative at the CGD, Liliana Rojas-Suarez.
Deterioration of the economic situation in China and Colombia
If certain countries already presented a worrying profile before the multiple crises of recent years, others on the contrary seemed largely protected but have nevertheless seen their situation become somewhat complicated. This is of course first and foremost the case of China, which has been caught for more than three years in a protracted crisis in its real estate sector, a major contributor to its growth (more than 30%), and might now destabilize the financial sector, while public authorities, particularly local ones, are today very indebted.
Colombia has also seen its situation deteriorate significantly, particularly due to an increase of 20 percentage points in its debt ratio, while the country is faced with a higher level of inflation than other countries in the region. the region and growth which remains weak. The IMF therefore forecasts inflation at 11.4% and growth of 1.4% for 2023.
Conversely, the economic situation remained solid for several emerging countries, first and foremost Indonesia, Peru, Thailand and Bulgaria, while Angola has experienced a period of significant improvement over the last five years. , following a period of budgetary adjustment.
Top Articles
1699434474
#Emerging #countries #emerged #weakened #series #crises
