2024-02-24 23:19:00
The Democratic Party’s approval rating is falling with regarding 40 days left before the general election. The factional conflict reached its peak during the nomination process for the 19th general election, which was defeated by the classic regime judgment theory and conflict over complacency and nomination. Despite concerns regarding large-scale defections from the party, Lee Jae-myung dismisses claims of not running or resigning… Overcoming criticism within the party head-on
With regarding 40 days left until the April 10 general election, the nightmare of the 19th general election held in 2012 is being highlighted within the Democratic Party of Korea. At the time, the Democratic United Party, the predecessor of the Democratic Party, settled for the theory of ‘judging the Lee Myung-bak government’ in the 19th general election, causing a rupture between factions during the nomination process and losing the majority to the Saenuri Party (predecessor of the People Power Party).
The reason why the 2012 defeat is talked regarding within the party is because the party’s approval rating is on the decline due to the controversy over Representative Lee Jae-myung’s Sacheon. As a result, a sense of crisis is spreading that this general election may have similar results to the 19th general election.
According to the political world on the 25th, recent opinion polls show that the Democratic Party’s approval rating continues to decline. Even in this general election, the Democratic Party’s approval rating is struggling even as the regime-check theory is dominant.
Looking at the results of the survey conducted in the second week of February by Realmeter, a public opinion polling agency, the approval ratings for the People Power Party and the Democratic Party narrowed to less than 1 percentage point (p) in one year. The People Power Party recorded 40.9% and the Democratic Party recorded 41.8%.
In the third week of February survey released on the 19th, both parties fell slightly at the same time, but maintained a similar gap. The People Power Party was recorded at 39.1%, and the Democratic Party was recorded at 40.2%.
In a Gallup Korea survey, the Democratic Party showed signs of recovery, but fell behind the People Power Party. On the 23rd, Gallup Korea conducted a survey on political party support among 1,003 voters over the age of 18 across the country over three days from the 20th to the 22nd, and the results showed that the People Power Party was 37%, the Democratic Party 35%, the Green Justice Party 2%, and the New Reform Party 3%. , New Future was found to be 1% and shamans were 20%.
Compared to the previous week, the Democratic Party rose by 4 percentage points, while the People Power Party and the Green Justice Party remained unchanged. In the case of the New Reform Party, the approval rating was split at 3% for the New Reform Party and 1% for New Future, Lee Nak-yeon’s new party, in this survey, which came following the collapse of last week’s 4% approval rating. (For more details, please refer to the website of the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee.)
Despite the high level of criticism of the regime, the Democratic Party’s struggles are similar to those of the 19th general election. In the 19th general election, the Democratic United Party was gaining momentum as Park Won-soon, the single opposition candidate, won in the by-election held in 2011 following the resignation of Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon. Disappointment with the Lee Myung-bak government led to criticism of the regime, and it was predicted that the Democratic United Party would win the majority.
However, as a result of the election, the Saenuri Party won the majority with 152 seats. The Democratic United Party lost, winning 127 seats. Han Myeong-sook, leader of the Democratic United Party, took responsibility for the general election defeat and resigned three months following taking office.
Even at that time, the issue was the nomination controversy. Representative Han said in his election acceptance speech, “This structure of pro-Roh, anti-Roh, non-Roh is divisive rhetoric created by the media. “Everyone in the Democratic Party is pro-Roh,” but the promise was not kept.
As nominations were made mainly by factions centered around the pro-Roh 486 faction, opposition from the non-mainstream old democratic circles erupted. When the old democratic group was excluded from nominations, they rose up with the theory of ‘old democratic group massacre’. Eventually, the party split as some members of the old democratic faction left the party and founded the Orthodox Democratic Party.
On the other hand, the Grand National Party, which was in crisis, nominated former President Park Geun-hye, a presidential candidate, as chair of the emergency response committee. Although the nomination process was not without noise, former President Park declared that she would not run in the general election and directly led to the resignation of senior officials. In addition, at the time, it recruited emergency committee members Kim Jong-in and emergency committee members Lee Jun-seok and embarked on intensive reforms, including promoting economic democratization. The party name was also changed to Saenuri Party.
There is an analysis that there is not much difference between the Democratic United Party in the 19th general election and the Democratic Party ahead of the 22nd general election. Rep. Song Gap-seok of the Non-Scream (Non-Lee Jae-myung) faction said on his Facebook page, “The 22nd general election is an election that is absolutely difficult to lose. “But this is shaking,” he said. “The 19th general election in 2012 comes to mind like déjà vu.”
In the Democratic Party, factional conflict is spreading due to Representative Lee’s Sacheon controversy. The non-government community is strongly opposing the decision, raising issues such as closed-door meetings, opinion polls without the names of incumbents, and the fairness of screening for the bottom 209%.
A declaration of withdrawal from the party was also made during the nomination process. Rep. Kim Young-joo, a four-term senior member, withdrew from the party, saying, “I felt humiliated” by the notification to the bottom 20%. Rep. Lee Soo-jin also announced her withdrawal from the party following her district was decided to be a black area and was cut off (excluded from nomination).
There are also predictions that non-profit groups that have doubts regarding fairness will take collective action. In addition, there is an increasing possibility that non-affiliated lawmakers who were eliminated from the nomination will defect to the third zone. There is also an analysis that the Bundang incident might be repeated due to large-scale withdrawal of non-members from the party.
Some argue that Representative Lee will retreat for a second term, including not running, in order to resolve the confusion that occurred during the nomination phase and restore the fallen approval rating.
However, Representative Lee dismissed calls for his resignation and signaled his intention to tackle the nomination controversy head on. Representative Lee met with reporters at the National Assembly on the 22nd and said, “It seems that there are people who are frequently calling for me to resign, but if I resign like that, the representative will have to change 365 days a year.”
A Democratic Party official said, “In the end, it is Representative Lee who is responsible for the results of the general election,” and “If this continues, Representative Lee will die and the party will die.” “It is time to take special measures to turn the approval rating around,” he said. The logic is, “Representative Lee must die for the party to survive.”
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