2023-05-23 06:25:08
The leaders of the G7 countries sent clear messages at the conclusion of the summit in Hiroshima on Sunday. They summon China to stop its “interference activities” and affirm that they will support Ukraine at all costs once morest Russia, “as long as it takes”. However, the scope of their resolutions remains limited, and their influence is weakening, to the benefit of emerging powers.
“It’s obvious: the G7 is losing its feathers,” says Charles-Philippe David, professor of political science and founder of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair at the University of Quebec in Montreal (UQAM). “The GDP of the G7 countries is in sharp decline, and the group, as an institution, is becoming less and less influential” from a geopolitical point of view, he says.
Roromme Chantal, a professor at the Université de Moncton who specializes in international relations, explains that new players are taking advantage of this loss of influence: “In 10 years, there will be only one Western economic power among the five largest in the world: the United States. The other four will be in Asia: Japan (member of the G7), but also China, India and South Korea”.
This is one of the reasons why the G7 invited India, Brazil and Indonesia as summit observers. Justin Trudeau also met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modī and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva there. Their two countries are part of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), a group whose influence is becoming comparable to that of the G7, according to Mr. Chantal.
What place for Canada?
The latter adds that the G7 has become “anachronistic”, since “its declarations no longer have the significance of the past and they no longer worry China”. Mr. David agrees: “These summits do not lead to concrete results. The G7 is more like a thermometer that allows us to gauge the geopolitical climate”.
So what does the thermometer tell us regarding Canada’s importance in the world? Mr. David believes that under Justin Trudeau, the country is “losing momentum”, and that we might see this weekend.
The professor recalls the efforts of Pierre Elliott Trudeau to convince the great powers to reduce their nuclear armament during the Cold War, or those of Brian Mulroney, who convinced his counterparts to sanction South Africa, in response apartheid. “Justin Trudeau might take inspiration from his father and take the lead on the issue of armament, which is gaining momentum at the moment, but that is not his style. he says.
Last Tuesday, the Angus Reid Institute unveiled a survey that almost half of Canadians feel that Canada’s international reputation is in decline. The approval rate for Canadian foreign policy is also at its lowest since the start of the Trudeau government, falling from 79% in 2016 to 51% in 2023, according to the same poll.
Mr. Trudeau nevertheless imposed himself on certain issues during the summit. He notably criticized Italy’s far-right leader, Giorgia Meloni, for her positions on LGBTQ+ people and convinced the other member countries of the group to form a united front once morest Chinese interference, in a statement published on Saturday.
China, the elephant in the room
Political interference, military exercises in Taiwan, trade with Russia… Several issues have also been criticized for Xi Jinping’s China, on the sidelines of the summit, although the members of the G7 have reiterated their desire to continue their economic cooperation with the country. the most populous on the planet.
“It’s a balancing act,” says Patrick Leblond, professor at the University of Ottawa, specialist in international economic relations. “On the one hand, we want to reduce dependence on [et l’influence de] China, especially in the technology sector. But Xi Jinping’s government can also exhibit aggressive and unpredictable behavior. We therefore want to reduce the risk of military conflicts at all costs”.
During a press briefing at the closing of the summit on Sunday, Justin Trudeau nevertheless declared that it was necessary “to continue to protect ourselves once morest authoritarian countries which use their economic power to exert unfair pressure on the others “.
Recall that last week, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs replied that China was itself a victim of economic coercion by the West. Mr. Chantal rightly points out that “it is the United States that practically invented economic coercion” and that “calls from the West, to the global South, to unite to counter the growing influence of China, might be perceived as hypocrisy”.
Zelensky monopolizes the attention
The G7 countries also addressed the issue of climate change and humanitarian aid to “poor or developing” countries, as Mr. Trudeau recalled, highlighting the group’s commitments to provide $ 600 billion in aid for infrastructure projects by 2027.
One person, however, monopolized the media attention and eclipsed the other files. It is of course the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, who went there. He was offered more military aid on Saturday, notably from the United States. Joe Biden promised more artillery, ammunition and armored vehicles, worth $375 million. The Brazilian president, however, maintained that he would not send arms to Ukraine, although he said he wanted a ceasefire.
Charles-Philippe David argues that “the most important recent aid measure” remains the United States’ promise to send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine – something he has long hesitate to do.
“Only a military victory can change the course of things,” he said. Economic sanctions like the ones that have been announced [vendredi] will not be enough to make Putin bend, because Russia still has large monetary reserves and continues to sell its oil”. It is even precisely the war in Ukraine that makes Mr. David say that the G7 “remains significant”. “On this issue, they really make all the difference.”
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