2024-01-23 14:00:40
As soon as the declining birth rate in France is discussed, another issue immediately resurfaces: the elimination of the “Secu gap”. Highlighted in the “demographic assessment” presented on January 16 by INSEE, the continued decline in births in our country is not good news for the financing of the welfare state. If this trend continues, it is likely, in the long term, to accelerate the reduction in the number of active workers compared to the number of retirees, which might result in sluggish contribution receipts and benefit expenditures driven towards the high (retirement pensions, reimbursement of health costs, etc.). This perspective increases the pressure on those in power, already faced with a social debt whose extinction promises to take longer than expected.
The problem data is known. After recording a historic deficit due to the health crisis (nearly −40 billion euros in 2020), the basic compulsory “Secu” schemes saw their situation improve, while remaining in the red in 2023: − 8.7 billion, including the surplus generated by the solidarity fund which finances the minimum old age. But the imbalances are expected to increase once more in 2024 and then increase, reaching −17.5 billion in 2027.
Two areas are suffering: Health Insurance (with a forecast negative balance of −9.6 billion euros in 2027) and basic pension plans (−14 billion), despite the 2023 reform which allows for savings thanks to the postponement of the legal retirement age to 64 years. These increased difficulties are emerging without there being the slightest crisis, which would inflate the volume of benefits allocated while slowing down contribution receipts. Faced with such a drift, the government is accused of remaining passive. “Announce that the coming years will see deficits widening (…) is unacceptable for our children, for future generations”denounced, on 1is December 2023, Elisabeth Doineau, general rapporteur (Centrist Union) of the Senate Social Affairs Committee, during the examination of the “Secu” budget.
An “unthought” around “Secu” resources
Since 1996, holes in the welfare state accounts have been covered by the Social Debt Amortization Fund (Cades). This was responsible for clearing the liabilities, with its own resources. Initially, his mission was scheduled to end in 2009. But the burden has continued to grow, with several “transfers of this”so much so that the timetable was postponed three times: until 2014, then until 2025 and finally 2033.
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