2023-06-11 22:03:58
“We are drifting into one of the most dangerous periods in human history,” said SIPRI Director Dan Smith on the occasion of the publication of the 2022 Yearbook. It is “absolutely” necessary to find ways of working together to reduce geopolitical tensions and slow down the arms race.
In its research, SIPRI distinguishes between ready-to-use stock and total stock. The latter also includes older nuclear weapons and those intended for decommissioning. According to the SIPRI report, the nine nuclear-powered states would continue to modernize their nuclear arsenals – some had also installed new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapons systems in the previous year.
The lion’s share continues with Russia and the USA
The total number of nuclear warheads owned by the UK, China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, the US and Russia fell to 12,512 in 2022 from 12,710 a year earlier. Of these, 9,576 were in “military stockpile for potential use,” according to SIPRI, 86 more than in 2021.
Of these, around 3,844 nuclear warheads are operational and around 2,000 are on high alert – almost all of them in US or Russian stocks.
Together, the two great powers have nearly 90 percent of all nuclear weapons. However, due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, diplomacy in the area of arms control and disarmament suffered a serious setback. Transparency regarding nuclear weapons also decreased.
Increased risk of “misjudgments”
“There is an urgent need to restore nuclear diplomacy and strengthen international controls over nuclear weapons,” Smith said, addressing the increased risk of “miscalculations, misunderstandings or accidents” between nuclear powers. Both the US and the UK did not provide the public with information regarding their nuclear forces in 2022 – unlike in previous years.
In February, Russian President Vladimir Putin suspended the New START treaty with the United States to reduce the nuclear arsenal. However, Russia had declared that it wanted to continue to adhere to the upper limits of the treaty. It is the last existing disarmament treaty between the two nuclear powers. Most recently, the Kremlin has once more shown itself open to a new dialogue on mutual nuclear arms control.
China significantly increased Arsenal
Most of the current increase is due to China increasing its stockpile from 350 to 410 nuclear warheads, according to SIPRI figures. India, Pakistan, North Korea and, to a lesser extent, Russia also increased stockpiles, while the other nuclear powers maintained their levels.
SIPRI also points out that Great Britain has already announced in the past that it wants to increase the previous upper limit for nuclear warheads from 225 to 260. In addition, France is continuing to develop the third generation of the nuclear submarine (SSBN) launch vehicle, and India, Pakistan and Israel, which has refused to officially disclose its nuclear weapons stocks, are also working on expanding and renewing their nuclear arsenals, the SIPRI report says.
A-bomb for North Korea “key element”
North Korea continues to prioritize its nuclear weapons program as a “central element” of its national security strategy. The experts estimate that the country currently has 30 nuclear warheads and enough material for 50 to 70 more – a significant increase from last year.
SIPRI boss Smith pointed out that the increasing stockpiles cannot be explained by the war in Ukraine because it takes longer to develop new warheads. In addition, the countries with the largest increases are not directly affected by the war. And as for Beijing’s investment in rearmament, Smith said, “Look at China’s rise to global power” — and “this is the reality of our time.”
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