As meteo.gr/ EAA reports, the prevalence of very high temperatures on consecutive days contributes to maintaining the heat burden and the relative risk to human health at high levels.
Scientists are sounding the alarm since the high temperatures are expected to persist until the end of next week, i.e. until Friday, July 19, according to the Emergency Weather Deterioration Bulletin (EDEK) issued by the National Meteorological Service. At the same time, as EMY points out, conditions of high thermal stress are predicted due to the upcoming temperatures, in most of the continental regions of the country.
As Dimitra Foudas, Director of Research at the Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development of the National Observatory of Athens, explains to the Athens-Macedonian News Agency, according to the World Health Organization, (WHO) from 2000 to 2019 approximately 489,000 deaths were recorded per year related to heat, while between 2000 and 2016, according to another study, the number of people exposed to extreme heat and heat conditions increased by regarding 125 million. “In the coming decades, approximately 30% of the world’s population will be exposed to extreme heat,” he emphasizes.
Large urban centers are particularly burdened – The night temperatures are worrying
Large urban centers are particularly burdened, as in addition to the already known effects due to global warming there is also the aggravating element of the urban heat island phenomenon.
“Areas that are very densely built up, such as Patisia or Pagrati, have a greater burden both during the day and during the night. But it also depends a lot on the other conditions, the meteorological ones”, Mrs. Fouda points out to APE-MPE, adding that the dense construction as well as the anthropogenic activity contribute to the further burden of some urban areas.
As Ms. Fouda explains, when the human body finds itself in an environment that is thermally burdened, then the various mechanisms are not sufficient to maintain the balance between the heat produced and that which is expelled from the human body, resulting in state of thermal equilibrium to come to a state of thermal stress. “What is needed is a balance between the energy, the heat that the human body produces, and that which it loses, that it expels. When the external conditions are such that allow this preservation, the body temperature is maintained in a narrow range around 37 degrees and then the person is in a state of thermal comfort, in a neutral zone that is, or a zone of thermal comfort. But when the human organism finds itself in an environment that is thermally burdened, then the various mechanisms are not sufficient to maintain this balance between what it takes in and what it expels. From a state of thermal equilibrium we come to a state of thermal stress. If we are exposed to a hot environment, we have heat stress, while when we are in a cold environment, we have cold stress”, underlines to APE-MPE Ms. Fouda, however, adding that we need to examine more expanded and comprehensive indicators such as bioclimatic or thermal indicators. These indicators, according to Mrs. Fouda, do not only take into account the temperature but also other meteorological elements of the environment such as humidity, wind speed and thermal radiation, as they play a very important role in the feeling of thermal comfort or discomfort.
However, what worries scientists are the temperatures recorded during the night hours. “It should ring a bell regarding what happens at night, regarding night temperatures. Reading a few days ago a study for Germany in which data from the last 15 years was analyzed, the researchers found an increased number of strokes due to high night temperatures. The effects on the human body have not been properly studied. It takes many years of study to see exactly how they develop and what their effects are on the human body. The effects on human health from high temperatures or from heat waves are not always so immediately measurable and may have been a little underestimated”, notes Ms. Fouda.
According to Ms. Fouda, urban areas are more burdened mainly during the night, a period when the heat absorbed by the human body during the day is expelled. But, as he points out, when an extreme phenomenon such as a heat wave prevails even in non-urban areas, very high temperatures occur during the day. “Sometimes in cities, because the buildings are tall, a person moving outside can find shelter somewhere in the shade more easily than a person moving in the countryside. The good thing regarding non-urban and rural areas is that the temperature usually drops quite a bit during the night hours. So it gives time and way to the human body to recover and recover from the thermal stress with which it has been charged during the day. This is the good thing regarding non-urban areas, which is not usually the case in cities. Recently we also did some research (within the “Climate Change, Health and Energy: Impacts and Interactions – ENACT” program funded by the Green Fund), which concerned the frequency of “compound” (compound) hot days or compound heatwaves in large urban areas of Greece, which are phenomena, in which a very high temperature is recorded simultaneously during the day and at night. These phenomena, which are the most dangerous, were found to show a significant increase from 2000 onwards”, he underlines.
At the same time, Mrs. Fouda explains that the temperatures that prevail in the Basin depend a lot on the wind field. Breezes cool coastal areas, but combined with higher humidity can cause more heat stress.
“There are also other local phenomena, such as warm downwinds, which can significantly raise the temperature in suburbs located at the foot of the mountains (eg Northern or Eastern suburbs).”
“Measures are needed to reduce the urban island phenomenon and actions to help vulnerable social groups”
According to Ms. Fouda, there should be even more measures and actions aimed at reducing the urban heat island phenomenon. This, as he explains, can be done in various ways such as the use of specific materials for the constructions but also with more green spaces.
At the same time, as he emphasizes, the risk of heat stress and strain has been slightly underestimated. “We all now have the easy solution of putting on my air conditioner and feeling a little better. A vicious circle is created here, because by using the air conditioners you once more increase your energy footprint. On the other hand there are vulnerable social groups (eg low income, elderly etc.) who find it difficult to deal with the risk of high temperatures (eg lack or reduced use of air conditioning for financial reasons, housing in old buildings, buildings without insulation, insufficient information etc. ). We need to look at the issue socially. We have to look at too many parameters. There needs to be actions and interventions from the state and local authorities to deal with this serious social issue”, notes Ms. Fouda.
“It will be a very hot summer. Records are broken one following another”
One following the other, the records regarding the positive deviations of the temperatures observed in Greece in relation to the average climatic values are being broken. Already in the first half of 2024, with the exception of May, the remaining months record prices above normal levels for the season.
In fact, according to the network of 53 meteorological stations of meteo.gr of the National Observatory of Athens (EAA), which have been operating continuously since 2010 until today, in June this year the average value of the maximum daily temperatures fluctuated at extremely high levels throughout the country, in relation to with the average of the period 2010-2019. In fact, this year’s June, according to meteo.gr of the National Observatory of Athens, was the warmest June since 2010 throughout the country by a very large margin from the second.
“2023, we can say with confidence, was the hottest year not only in our country, but worldwide. We continue in 2024. The pattern has not changed and we are watching a situation where really records are broken one following another. We experienced an April that felt like June, with a deviation of almost more than 5 degrees from the average normal value. A June that was once more regarding 5 degrees warmer on average compared to the average climate value”, the director of Research points out to the Athenian-Macedonian News Agency.
In fact, according to the climate historical records of the National Observatory of Athens dating back to the middle of the 19th century, the decade from 2014 to 2023 in Greece was 1.7 degrees warmer than pre-industrial levels, explains Ms. Fouda. and adds that on a global scale it was 1.2 degrees warmer than pre-industrial levels. “This is important because we can conclude that the increase in temperature and the rates of increase are greater than the global average in our region, which is true for almost the entire Mediterranean which has been characterized as one of the most vulnerable regions in the climate change in terms of thermal risk”, he notes and adds that our region records a deviation of 1.7 degrees in relation to pre-industrial levels when the goal of the Paris Agreement is not to exceed the global temperature of 1.5 degree towards the end of the century relative to pre-industrial levels.
With reference to this summer, as Ms. Fouda explains, according to medium-term forecast models, it seems that the summer, especially in Greece, will be well above the average normal value. “It will be a very warm summer, as the medium-term forecast models show. A few years ago the specific models had a lot of uncertainty. In recent years, however, they have improved a lot and the prognosis is usually correct at least 70-80%”, he emphasizes.
#danger #heat #overload
