In November, the United States will elect its next president. Analysts are exploring the implications of each candidate’s policies for Guatemala, following the debate on September 10 in which the current vice president, Kamala Harris, was recognized as the winner against her opponent, former president, Donald Trump.
International media highlighted that it was Harris who managed to maintain control, while Trump focused on defending his image.
Guatemala has historically been a partner of the United States and, due to its geographic proximity, is also important for the northern country in matters of trade, security and migration.
Panorama
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Polls indicate that Harris will be the one to keep the Democrats in the presidency for one more term. According to analysts, this would be beneficial for Bernardo Arévalo‘s government.
According to independent analyst Nicholas Virzi, Trump has a chance of winning because his participation record shows that he never led the polls, not even when he was elected.
In addition, the votes of candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could be decisive for Trump, to whom he has shown support. Both even appeared at a rally together.
“Less than 50,000 votes in the swing states determined the election – when Trump won – Trump has always been underestimated,” Virzi said.
He added that as November draws closer, the race will become tighter in the search for votes in the swing states, meaning those that do not have a defined majority between the Democratic and Republican parties.
Along those lines, internationalist Luis Felipe Polo spoke out, agreeing that the situation will become increasingly tighter and the victory will be close.
Migration
The continuity of the Democratic Party or the return to the Republican Party would have effects in Guatemala, especially on migration.
Polo said that neither candidate mentioned Latin America during the debate, although migrants arriving in the United States do not come exclusively from the region.
In line with Trump’s policy, experts have pointed out that he could request the reactivation of the Safe Third Country agreement.
“In this case, this could complicate matters for Guatemala because it means that Guatemala would have to assume leadership or a difficult role, because it would have to care for these people and it is not in a position to maintain more people,” Polo explained.
Virzi agreed that Trump will be stricter with immigration controls and that the agreement could be reactivated.
Internationalist Francisco Lemus also explained that the migration issue is a state policy, so the change will be the way of addressing it and the style.
Foreign policy
According to Lemus and Polo, the Arévalo government would benefit greatly if Harris were elected.
“I would have more favorable conditions -with Harris- in foreign policy issues, including the ability to negotiate something on immigration, the Free Trade Agreement and the fight against drug trafficking, which would also open more doors here in that line,” Lemus added.
He also said that if Trump is elected, the opposition to the current government would be strengthened.
Polo, from his point of view, commented that Harris’ victory could also represent more opportunities for the government. He believes that bilateral policies could be strengthened.
“This could lead to Guatemala taking advantage of the circumstances in the future to request Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Guatemalans,” said internationalist Luis Felipe Polo.
For Virzi, one opportunity that will be presented if Trump wins is trade, especially with the strategy with which companies relocate their commercial or productive processes, which he said Guatemala must know how to take advantage of.
He said that because the country maintains its support for Taiwan, the United States likes that, so Guatemala remains an ally. He added that Trump will not interfere in the Executive’s controversy with the Public Ministry.
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#electoral #scenario #impact #Guatemala
– How could Kamala Harris’s election as president impact Guatemala’s foreign policy?
The Implications of the US Presidential Election on Guatemala: A Comprehensive Analysis
As the United States prepares to elect its next president in November, analysts are closely examining the implications of each candidate’s policies on Guatemala, a significant partner of the US in terms of trade, security, and migration.
The Debate and Polls
The recent debate on September 10 between current Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump highlighted the differences in their approaches to governance. While Harris was recognized as the winner, maintaining control and composure throughout the debate, Trump focused on defending his image. According to polls, Harris is likely to win the presidency, which would be beneficial for Bernardo Arévalo’s government in Guatemala.
However, independent analyst Nicholas Virzi notes that Trump still has a chance of winning, citing his past record of participating in elections without leading the polls. Additionally, the votes of candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could be decisive for Trump, as they have shown support for each other.
Migration and the Safe Third Country Agreement
The outcome of the election will have significant implications for migration, particularly for Guatemala. If Trump were to win, experts predict that he could request the reactivation of the Safe Third Country agreement, which would require Guatemala to assume leadership and care for migrants arriving in the US. This could be challenging for Guatemala, given its limited resources.
Virzi agrees that Trump would be stricter with immigration controls, while internationalist Francisco Lemus notes that the migration issue is a state policy, and the approach would depend on the winning candidate’s style.
Foreign Policy and the Arévalo Government
Analysts agree that the Arévalo government would benefit greatly if Harris were elected, as she would likely adopt a more favorable foreign policy approach. This could lead to improved negotiations on immigration, the Free Trade Agreement, and the fight against drug trafficking, opening up more opportunities for Guatemala.
On the other hand, if Trump were to win, the opposition to the current government would be strengthened, according to Lemus. Polo believes that Harris’ victory could also represent more opportunities for the government, particularly in terms of strengthening bilateral policies.
Temporary Protected Status (TPS) and Trade Opportunities
One potential opportunity for Guatemala if Trump wins is trade, particularly with the strategy of companies relocating their commercial or productive processes. Virzi notes that Guatemala must know how to take advantage of this opportunity.
Additionally, Polo suggests that if Harris wins, Guatemala could request Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Guatemalans, which would provide temporary protection from deportation and work authorization for eligible individuals.
Conclusion
the outcome of the US presidential election will have significant implications for Guatemala, particularly in terms of migration, foreign policy, and trade. While Harris is likely to win, Trump still has a chance, and the race is expected to become tighter as November approaches. Guatemala must be prepared to adapt to the new administration’s policies and take advantage of the opportunities presented.
Key Takeaways
The US presidential election will have significant implications for Guatemala in terms of migration, foreign policy, and trade.
Harris is likely to win the presidency, which would be beneficial for the Arévalo government.
Trump’s victory could lead to the reactivation of the Safe Third Country agreement, which would be challenging for Guatemala.
The migration issue is a state policy, and the approach would depend on the winning candidate’s style.
Guatemala may benefit from trade opportunities if Trump wins, particularly with companies relocating their commercial or productive processes.
A Harris victory could lead to improved negotiations on immigration, the Free Trade Agreement, and the fight against drug trafficking.
Optimized Keywords
US presidential election
Guatemala
Kamala Harris
Donald Trump
Migration
Safe Third Country agreement
Foreign policy
Trade
Temporary Protected Status (TPS)
Bernardo Arévalo government
Nicholas Virzi
Luis Felipe Polo
* Francisco Lemus
How might the US presidential election outcomes influence migration policies affecting Guatemala?
The Impending US Presidential Election: What’s at Stake for Guatemala
As the United States gears up for its presidential election in November, analysts are exploring the implications of each candidate’s policies for Guatemala, a neighboring country with a long history of partnership and cooperation with the US. The recent debate between current Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump has shed light on the stark differences between their approaches to international relations, trade, and migration, which could have far-reaching consequences for Guatemala.
Panorama
Guatemala has historically been a partner of the United States, and due to its geographic proximity, it is also important for the northern country in matters of trade, security, and migration. The outcome of the US presidential election will likely have a significant impact on Guatemala’s foreign policy, economy, and migration dynamics.
Migration
The continuity of the Democratic Party or the return to the Republican Party would have significant effects on Guatemala, particularly on migration. If Trump is re-elected, experts predict that he will be stricter with immigration controls and may request the reactivation of the Safe Third Country agreement. This could complicate matters for Guatemala, as it would have to assume a leadership role in caring for migrants and providing them with resources. On the other hand, if Harris is elected, she may adopt a more lenient approach to immigration, which could benefit Guatemala and its citizens.
Foreign Policy
According to internationalists, the Arévalo government would benefit greatly if Harris were elected. A Harris presidency could lead to more favorable conditions for Guatemala in foreign policy issues, including the ability to negotiate better deals on immigration, trade, and the fight against drug trafficking. Additionally, a Harris presidency could open more doors for Guatemala in terms of bilateral policies and cooperation. On the other hand, if Trump is re-elected, the opposition to the current government could be strengthened, and Guatemala may face more challenges in its relations with the US.
What’s at Stake
The outcome of the US presidential election will have significant implications for Guatemala’s economy, migration dynamics, and foreign policy. A Harris presidency could bring more opportunities for Guatemala, including the possibility of requesting Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Guatemalans. On the other hand, a Trump presidency could lead to stricter immigration controls, which could complicate matters for Guatemala. Ultimately, the next US president will play a significant role in shaping the trajectory of US-Guatemala relations, and Guatemala must be prepared to adapt to the changing landscape.
Conclusion
As the US presidential election approaches, Guatemala must carefully consider the implications of each candidate’s policies. The country’s future relations with the US will depend on the outcome of the election, and it is essential for Guatemala to be prepared to work with whichever candidate wins. By understanding the potential implications of each candidate’s policies, Guatemala can better navigate the complex landscape of international relations and work towards a more prosperous future.
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