[The Epoch Times, April 3, 2022](Comprehensive report by The Epoch Times reporter Zhang Ting)Russian-Ukrainian WarIt has lasted for more than a month, and the Ukrainian army has successfully resisted the Russian army’s attack with asymmetric military force, which exceeded many people’s expectations at the beginning. The U.S. and British intelligence agencies, which have always kept secrets, have also been actively publicizing intelligence assessments during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. This unusual move is even more cause for concern.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, U.S. and U.K. intelligence agencies have been more than willing to open up their secret intelligence assessments of what’s happening on the battlefield and inside the Kremlin.
U.S. intelligence declassified this week said Russian President Vladimir Putin was misled by his staff because they were afraid to tell him how badly the Russian military was doing in Ukraine.
At the same time, the United Kingdom also released a similar signal to the United States.British intelligenceThe head of the agency said on Thursday (March 31) that Putin had misjudged the situation in Ukraine and his advisers were afraid to tell him what was really happening there.
Jeremy Fleming, head of the UK’s electronic intelligence agency, Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), made the remarks in a public speech. He said the “speed and scale” of the release of secret intelligence was truly “unprecedented”.
“We’ve seen Russian soldiers — short of weapons, low morale, refusing to follow orders, sabotaging their own equipment, even accidentally shooting down their own planes,” he said. “Although we believe Putin’s advisers are afraid to tell him the truth, What happened and the extent of these miscalculations must be made clear and understood by the regime,” Fleming said.
He also said Putin had also underestimated the economic consequences of the sanctions and Russia’s military capabilities.
Mark Galeotti, a Russia expert at University College London, said the very public intelligence campaign reflected the fact that “we are now living in a different era. , both politically and internationally. It’s a different war.”
Several purposes of the frequent disclosure of intelligence by the United States and Britain
Officials said the U.S. and U.K.’s declassified intelligence activities included regular briefings to reporters in Washington and London, as well as daily Twitter updates from the U.K. Ministry of Defense, the Associated Press said. This approach serves several purposes. Partly to let Putin know he was being watched and to make him question what he was told; also to get the Russian military to tell Putin the truth and to communicate to the Russian public that they were being deceived about the war.
The UK’s Ministry of Defence provides dailyRussian-Ukrainian Warintelligence assessment. This assessment is quoted in a large number of media every day.
Intelligence assessments released by the U.S. and U.K. in hopes of deterring Russian action. Such was the case with recent warnings that Russia may be preparing to use chemical weapons in Ukraine. This is all part of a transatlantic strategy that has been closely coordinated by the West for months, the Associated Press said.
Biden administration officials said they decided to actively share intelligence and coordinate messaging with key allies, including Britain. U.S. concerns over the redeployment of Russian troops in the fall of 2021 have put the intelligence community on high alert.
In early November 2021, the United States sent CIA Director William Burns to Moscow to warn the other side that the United States was fully aware of Russian military movements. The White House is usually tight-lipped about the director’s trip, but the Biden administration’s consideration is that, in this case, they need to widely publicize the visit. The U.S. embassy in Moscow announced shortly after Burns’ trip that Burns met with senior Kremlin officials.
Shortly after Burns visited Moscow, U.S. officials decided they needed to speed up intelligence sharing.
US officials shared sensitive intelligence with other members of the Five Eyes alliance (UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) and Ukraine. The director of national intelligence, Avril Haines, was dispatched to Brussels to brief NATO members on growing U.S. concerns that Russia appeared to be intending to invade, a U.S. official told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity.
In January, as Russia rallied its troops near the Ukrainian border, the British Foreign Office issued a statement claiming Putin wanted a pro-Moscow regime in Ukraine. The UK said at the time that it was making its intelligence assessment public due to “extraordinary circumstances”.
Russia’s February 24 invasion has largely silenced skeptics and prompted a unified NATO response.Officials and analysts say the U.S. andBritish intelligenceThe announcement was made in part to improve Western unity. The U.S. and British capitals doubt that Putin is serious about talks to end the war and wants to maintain Western military and moral support for Ukraine.
White House hopes Putin’s real intelligence will help reconsider Ukrainian strategy
The impact of the disclosure of US and British intelligence in Russia is difficult to measure. The White House hopes that revealing Putin’s misguided intelligence will help prompt Putin to reconsider his options in Ukraine, U.S. officials who spoke with The Associated Press said. But such propaganda also risks further isolating Putin or making him redouble his efforts to restore the Russian popularity that has been lost since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The official said Biden was partly influenced by a belief that “Putin will do what Putin does” regardless of how the international community stops him.
The Associated Press quoted Russia expert Galeotti as saying that Western intelligence agencies may not know how much their efforts will affect Putin.
“But there’s no harm in trying,” he said, “because at the end of the day, in this highly individualistic (government) system, if there’s a sentence, or a particular concept, that happens to pass through and stay in Putin’s mind. down, then that’s a really strong result.”
Responsible editor: Sun Yun#