The Consequences of Letting Russia Win in Ukraine: Institute for the Study of War Analysis

2023-12-16 23:01:59

Letting Russia win the war in Ukraine would have significant consequences for the West and NATO, argues the Institute for the Study of War.

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The American institution has assessed what the repercussions of such a scenario might be, while Donald Trump and several Republicans are considering cutting off supplies to Ukraine.

A hypothetical end of American funding might push other countries to also stop sending weapons, ammunition and equipment to Ukrainian forces. Abandoned by its allies, the Ukrainian resistance would then have great difficulty resisting the Russian army, which might therefore pave the way for a victory for Vladimir Putin’s forces.

“A Russian conquest of all of Ukraine is not at all impossible if the United States cuts its military aid and Europe follows suit,” says the Institute for the Study of War.

A stronger Russian army

According to the institution, a victory would allow the Russian army to emerge larger and more experienced than before 2022.

The Russian economy would recover as “economic sanctions would inevitably erode” and Putin’s army would rebuild its confidence and unity by “drawing on the riches of hard-won war experience.”

Russia would emerge with an anti-aircraft defense system that only American fighter planes would be able to counter. However, these devices are essential to the confrontation between the United States and China.

Washington would then face a dilemma: defend Taiwan effectively or protect the rest of Europe once morest Russia.

“Russia may represent a major threat to NATO for the first time since the 1990s,” proclaims the American institute.

Help Ukraine

A complete Russian victory in Ukraine would also force the US military to deploy a significant portion of its ground troops to Eastern Europe.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, “helping Ukraine prevent Russia from advancing on its territory is much more beneficial and less costly for the United States than letting Ukraine lose.”

Even a ceasefire would give Russia time to prepare for another war.

It would therefore be advantageous for NATO if Ukraine regained as much ground as possible and pushed back Russian forces.

Subsequently, the best option for the United States would be to help Ukraine achieve victory and then finance the country’s reconstruction.

The Ukrainian army would become the largest and most effective pro-NATO military force on the European continent.

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