Warmer than normal – with high temperatures – is expected to be the coming December in Greece, and in general in south-eastern Europe, Costas Lagouvardos points out in his post about the weather.
The Research Director of the Athens Observatory and responsible for the meteo.gr website, Kostas Lagouvardos, in the post he posted on Facebook today (12.11.2024) about the weather, notes that the average temperature in December will be higher than the normal levels for the season.
“The most likely scenarios are deviations of 0-1 °C (26%) and 1-2 °C (23%), while the probability of average temperature deviations of more than 2 °C is 23%. Finally, there is a 28% chance that we will have a lower than normal average temperature”, he emphasizes in the post.
Kostas Lagouvardou’s post in detail:
Long-term forecast for December 2024 average temperature
From the announcement we prepared with my colleague Georgios Fragkoulidis
Warmer than normal is expected to be next December in SE Europe (including Greece) according to long-term forecasts issued in November. As shown in the graph below, according to 72% of the available scenarios the December average temperature will be higher than normal for the season (reference period: 1993-2016).
In particular, the most likely scenarios are deviations of the order of 0-1 °C (26%) and 1-2 °C (23%), while the probability of average temperature deviations of more than 2 °C is 23%. Finally, there is a 28% chance that we will have a below normal average temperature.
This forecast is based on a total of 350 possible scenarios from the following forecast centers: ECMWF (Europe), UKMO (United Kingdom), Meteo-France (France), JMA (Japan), NCEP (USA), DWD (Germany) and CMCC ( Italy), as provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service of the European Commission.
It is emphasized that long-term forecasts are characterized by great uncertainty and aim to estimate the trend in the monthly and seasonal evolution of average weather conditions.
Temperature variations on a daily and local basis due to the influence of all kinds of weather systems may differ significantly from the average monthly variation over a wider area.
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