2023-08-10 10:29:26
Whoever the next president is, he will face a truly challenging scenario in the National Congress to get the laws he needs. It is that no political force would have its own quorum, although Juntos por el Cambio has the possibility of keeping the first minority in the Chamber of Deputies and contesting it in the Senate.
The PASO on Sunday will offer the most reliable photo of what could happen in the October election with the distribution of seats. There, 130 national deputies from all districts will be elected, and 24 national senators from eight provinces: Buenos Aires, Formosa, Jujuy, La Rioja, Misiones, San Juan, San Luis and Santa Cruz.
In Deputies, where the seats are distributed by the D’Hont system, the 2019 election is renewed, when the newly constituted Frente de Todos won the Presidency. The scenario now is very different, since it would no longer be a question of a polarized election, but of thirds, due to the irruption of the libertarian Javier Milei.
In those elections, Alberto Fernández received 48.2% of the votes, and Mauricio Macri, 40.2%. There was no second round. Today, practically no survey gives the two main forces the same percentage as four years ago and everything indicates that there will be a runoff.
That is why, in Deputies, the biggest challenge is faced by the current Frente de Todos, which exposes 68 of its current 118 seats. Together for Change, meanwhile, risks 55 seats out of a total of 116. If the map of thirds is specified, both spaces would lose seats.
In a strict tripartite scenario, similar to the one that occurred in the first round of 2015, Unión por la Patria would have around 103 deputies, and Together for Change with around 114, while Milei would have around 21. These are numbers that circulate in some offices of the main opposition. Other more austere calculations give the opposition alliance some 105 legislators.
Beyond the fine numbers, still premature, it is very likely that, regardless of who the next president is, neither of the two main spaces will have their own quorum of 129. The future ruling party will be forced to negotiate with the Milei bloc, or with the provincial forces, such as the ruling parties of Córdoba, Misiones and Río Negro.
Deputies: “golden” votes
The space that has everything to win is La Libertad Avanza, because both Milei and her partner Victoria Villarruel took office in 2021, that is, they have a mandate for two more years. The Left Front is in the same situation, because its four members continue until 2025.
“We anticipate that the next Congress will be made up mainly of two large dominant blocs, Unión por la Patria and Juntos por el Cambio. In turn, the most radical and intransigent benches of Deputies are expected to grow in representation, such as La Libertad Avanza and the Left Front”, analyzed Leandro Domínguez, director of Political Analysis of the Legislative Directory Foundation.
The specialist told this medium that “in this context, it is likely that the parties aligned with the governors or members of a portion of dissident Peronism will decrease in representation in mathematical terms. However, in political terms its legislative relevance will increase”.
“In a scenario where neither Together for Change nor Unión por la Patria would have their own quorum, combined with the growth of the most radical or intransigent spaces, those parties aligned with local or provincial representation will be one of the keys to unlocking the functioning of the next Congress”, evaluated Domínguez.
Currently there are two “federal” benches that put half of their representation at stake. They are the Federal Interblock, headed by Alejandro “Topo” Rodríguez from Buenos Aires, who risks 4 of 8 seats; and Provincias Unidas, led by Luis Di Giácomo from Rio Negro, who exhibited 2 seats out of a total of 4.
Senate
In the election of senators there are no half measures: three seats are distributed per province, two for the political group that obtains the highest number of votes, and one for the one that comes second. The 24 seats that were distributed in the 2017 legislative election, which Juntos por el Cambio won, are renewed.
This promises to be the closest battle, because today the Frente de Todos and Juntos por el Cambio are separated by just two seats, and risk 9 seats for the first (plus two allies) and 11 for the second. In other words, there is a chance that the board will remain very similar to the current one, with two forces fighting the first minority, neither of which would reach a quorum of 37 on its own.
The pro-government interblock, led by José Mayans (who is seeking to renew his mandate) today has 31 members and would need to add 6 more to reach its own majority. Together for Change, meanwhile, would have to add 4. Both spaces could also approach the number with the support of provincial parties that accommodate themselves according to the ruling party.
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