According to the independent Russian publication Meduza, which cites sources in the Kremlin, the Russian government and the United Russia party, the crackdown on undesirables will continue, but it is quite predictable.
“This is a country that is at war and lives by the motto ‘Everything for victory.’ More precisely, the president (V. Putin – ed. post.) would like her to live like that. It has no place for dissenters, gays, etc. Everything is subject to war,” commented a source close to the Kremlin.
According to sources, the terrorist attack on the Crocus concert arena will not have a significant impact on the political and military processes in Russia.
“Certain new contours” in Russia’s political system may emerge only following the end of the invasion of Ukraine – or some sort of ceasefire. As long as the war is going on, it is pointless to expect any changes,” says the interviewer.
He felt the weakness of Ukraine
All “Meduza” sources are convinced that V. Putin intends to continue the war. However, their assessments differ on what goals he currently sets in this regard. For example, one of the sources close to the Kremlin believes that following the failed counterattack by the Ukrainian armed forces, V. Putin “sensed the weakness of Ukraine and is ready to go all the way to victory – even to Kyiv – and he does not care regarding the price.”
“If mobilization is needed, he will announce it. If it is necessary to further subjugate the economy for military purposes, he will do so. He does this on principle,” said one of the sources.
It is important to capture Kharkiv
Another interlocutor close to the Kremlin, on the other hand, believes that the Russian high command is setting more realistic goals, namely to capture Kharkiv and then gradually end the war.
According to Meduza’s sources among the “Russian elite”, senior officials are confident that the Russian military can take Kharkiv, but that it will be “difficult” to advance further into Ukraine.
“Symbolically, this is also a victory. A city of a million people, where many Russian speakers live,” says one of the interlocutors.
At the same time, all sources note that they have no information that the decision to launch a large-scale attack on Kharkiv has already been made. But they agree that this is a “fairly likely scenario” that might theoretically require a new wave of mobilization.
Predictions of Ukrainian experts on the war in Ukraine
Former company commander of the Ukrainian Aidar battalion, Yevhen Dikijus, said that in April there may be an opportunity to turn the tide of the war in favor of Ukraine, but there are factors that can prevent it – lack of ammunition and people.
At the same time, the media write that 2024 will be the year of strategic defense of Ukraine, without any attempts to carry out a major offensive – the task will be to maintain defensive lines and carry out long-range air strikes. Theoretically, this will allow Ukraine to “accumulate its forces” this year so that by 2025 might try to counterattack once more with more chances.
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2024-03-29 17:45:16