[The Epoch Times, May 7, 2022](The Epoch Times reporter Song Tang comprehensive report) ForRussian-Ukrainian WarThe severity of the impact of the dispute on Europe, the CCP has made a serious misjudgment.LithuaniaAs well as the current issue of the Ukrainian war, the cognitive gap between the CCP and the EU has made Europe increasingly distrust the CCP.
On May 4, Noah Barkin, executive editor of the China business department of the American consulting firm Rhodium Group, and senior visiting scholar at the German Marshall Foundation (MGF), spoke at the German Marshall Foundation’s “Europe to see China”. ” (Watching China in Europe) column published a long article, analyzing the CCP’s misjudgment of Europe, and looking at it from four aspectsSino-European RelationsWhy drift away, the following is the main content of the article.
China misjudged Europe
Over the past few months, Europe has made it clear to China that if China actively supports Russia, it will seriously affect EU-China relations. This message was passed directly to Xi Jinping at the China-EU summit in early April.
But more than two months later, European diplomats are still not convinced that China has fully understood the seriousness of the conflict for Europe. “They (the CCP) still treat the Ukraine war as an inconsequential sideshow in EU-China relations,” said one diplomat.
Beijing’s diplomacy with Europe remains clumsy and ineffective, with the head of the Chinese foreign ministry’s European affairs (Wang Lutong) setting up a Twitter account at the end of March and has been sweet to say: “In an uncertain time, China and the EU should Working together for a peaceful and stable world benefits both parties.”
This reflects that over the years, Beijing and European countries haveLithuaniaAnd the current Ukrainian problem, and the cognitive gap that has arisen. Two recent examples are the CCP’s attempt to initiate 16+1 cooperation (China-Central and Eastern European countries cooperation) negotiations, and the “Global Security Initiative” proposed by Xi Jinping.
Last year, Lithuania was the first to leave 16+1. In February 2021, at the ninth summit attended by Xi Jinping for the first time in person, only half of the EU member states sent their leaders to participate, which is equivalent to a slap in the face of the CCP.
This year marks the tenth anniversary of the 16+1 cooperation. Beijing is preparing to publicize it with great fanfare. It is said that a commemorative envelope has been issued. But having all 16 European countries involved is no longer a given, including the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia and Romania, already disappointed with the summit.
In late April, in order to save the 16+1 cooperation platform, Beijing sent special envoy Huo Yuzhen to visit at least 8 countries. Informed sources revealed that in order to save Beijing’s face, Huo Yuzhen suggested that future 16+1 meetings be downgraded to the level of foreign minister.
But this suggestion failed to arouse interest. On the contrary, several countries gave a clear answer, “16+1 is disappointing, and the future participation is up in the air.”
An Eastern European diplomat said, I don’t know if 16+1 is dead, but it’s hard to see any way for China to save face. The possibility of the 10th anniversary summit of 16+1 is looking increasingly unlikely.
The CCP’s coercion of Lithuania and support for Russia will only make the entire Eastern Europe tougher. An Eastern European diplomat likened Eastern European countries’ attitude towards 16+1 to the Cheshire Cat in “Alice in Wonderland”, saying: “We smile and disappear, we don’t make noise, but we Ignore all 16+1 invitations.”
At the Boao Forum at the end of April, Xi Jinping proposed the “Global Security Initiative”, talking regarding the need for “common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security, abandoning the Cold War mentality, and adhering to the principle of ‘indivisible security'”, which is also what Putin mentioned. a concept.
In recent months, the information received from Chinese diplomats is that one of the aims of the “Global Security Initiative” is to create a Eurasian security order that ties Europe to Russia and China, which is believed to be China. A complete misreading of European sentiment by leaders.
Because the CCP misjudged Europe, it can be seen from the following four aspects that the relationship between Europe and the CCP has become more and more distant.
1. Europe and the United States discuss taking action on the Taiwan issue
The EU-US Dialogue on China is an independent transatlantic forum. Last year, the EU opposed its inclusion on the agenda, despite mentioning Taiwan in a joint statement between the two sides. Europeans have avoided the issue for fear of provoking Beijing.
This year is different. At a meeting in Brussels in April, the European Union offered to put Taiwan on the main agenda. “It feels like Europe is going to have a big fight,” said one U.S. diplomat.
An EU diplomat revealed that the clear message from Washington is that the United States wants the EU to take action to impose sanctions on China when it invades Taiwan and work out a sanctions plan.
“We all want to drive up the cost of China’s (Chinese invasion),” the EU diplomat said, noting that the two sides have agreed to learn from the Ukraine war and cooperate, and both see the 2024 U.S. and Taiwan presidential elections as a potentially dangerous spot.
2. Follow the Indo-Pacific
Not long ago, German Chancellor Scholz made his first trip to Asia, going to Japan instead of China. At present, the German government has not set a date for consultations with China, and Scholz has no plans to meet Chinese leaders, although German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is considering attending the G20 foreign ministers meeting in early July, possibly in China stop.
Earlier, European Commission President von der Leyen launched a trade and technology committee with India in Brussels, to the surprise of some officials. The idea was proposed by the EU and approved by India within a day.
3. Enhance the EU-US Trade and Technology Committee
The Ukrainian war united Europe and the United States. Launched last June, the EU-US Trade and Technology Committee (TTC), initially seen as a temporary tool to resolve tensions on both sides of the Atlantic for two to three years, now hopes to make it permanent.
“The Ukrainian war has given the TTC a new target to focus on a larger geopolitical sphere, where the discussion between democracies and dictatorships lies,” a senior EU diplomat said.
A second meeting will be held in Paris in mid-May, with European and American officials expecting significant progress on supply chain security, export controls, standards and combating disinformation. Work together to map dependencies, create a space for transatlantic cooperation for key products such as rare earths, and strengthen cooperation in international standard setting to counter Chinese influence.
4. Turn to America
Now in German politics, one of the most important issues is how to solve the economic dependence on China. A German diplomat said, “Solution of dependence (on China) is the least controversial part of it.”
German business is already showing signs of tilting toward the United States. Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess recently announced plans to more than double his company’s U.S. market share by 2030. Volkswagen has similar levels of profitability as Japan’s Toyota, which is more than twice as valuable, but Toyota is far less dependent on the Chinese market, in part because it has a strong U.S. market. Volkswagen realized very late that it needed to rebalance its geography.
For the past three years, the Confederation of German Industry has been warning regarding political risks in China, and last year launched a new Transatlantic Business Initiative, chaired by Siegfried Ruswal Siegfried Russwurm recently traveled to Washington to call for a restart of economic ties with the United States.
Responsible editor: Lin Yan#
