British scientists are confident that SARS-CoV-2 will continue to circulate around the planet, and the emergence of new variants of the virus is not excluded. SAGE experts have proposed possible scenarios for the future in the era of a pandemic, but do not consider them the only possible ones.
– It is also possible to move from one scenario to another over time, – in their February paper, the researchers. — Outbreaks are expected to occur in waves — in all scenarios.
Scientists note that with a simultaneous outbreak of influenza and coronavirus, the wave will be higher, but shorter. If the incidence of influenza and covid follow each other, we may get a longer winter wave.
Epidemiological measures, vaccines, therapy and testing will also affect the situation with coronavirus, experts say.
– Coronavirus waves will be harder if they found out late especially where vaccination rates are low. In general, the speed of testing for covid, the percentage of vaccinated, anti-epidemic measures will significantly affect the incidence, the scientists conclude. “But there is no suggestion yet about what the ideal vaccination strategy would be (booster immunization using existing vaccines, vaccination with updated vaccines or completely new ones).
It is likely that any threatening new strain of coronavirus will spread faster than an effective new vaccine is available.
Scenario #1 – “Best Option”
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Vaccines will remain effective against new strains of coronavirus. The new variants will not be highly contagious and will not cause severe disease.
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Antivirals will curb the spread
infections.
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Only minor seasonal/regional outbreaks of covid will occur. That is, the virus becomes endemic. And with the help of vaccines, COVID-19 is becoming a manageable infection.
Scenario #2 – “Basic Optimistic”
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Waves of infection will continue to occur due to weakening of the immune system and/or the emergence of new variants.
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There will be “good” and “bad” outbreaks as some strains can cause more severe COVID-19.
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The immune system protects most people, but resistance to antiviral drugs is starting to emerge.