Possibly, the only asterisk is the “riddle” of the Obamas.
The former US president refrained from expressing his support for the US vice president. Information said that his aim was to avoid the “political error” of seeing the succession as an “appointment or ‘coronation’ and not a democratic process within the party”, as it should be.
At the same time, however, his attitude rekindled for some the scenarios for the candidacy of the former first lady of the USA, Michelle Obama, whose name has never left the public debate, despite the denials. After all, according to the polls, he is the only person who can beat Donald Trump by a wide margin.
US election: Unshakable favorite for the Democratic nomination
However, the bets, according to Polymarket, one of the largest prediction platforms in the world, show that the possibility of Michelle Obama’s involvement in the race for the presidency, although slightly increased, remains small (8% from 3%).
According to Polymarket betting, Kamala Harris should already be considered the Democratic candidate for the November 5th election with 84%. The probability that there is another candidate, apart from the two ladies, is only 7%.
US Election: Loses to Trump – Around 30% chance of her winning
Regarding the predictions for the new US president, after the withdrawal of Biden there is a partial data change, but Trump remains a strong favorite. Specifically, the probability that the Republican candidate will win the election has dropped from about 70% to 64%. In contrast, the probability that Kamala Harris will be the new occupant of the White House has increased from about 18% to 29%.
The picture is similar in other betting companies. Donald Trump, four days earlier, on July 18, had a 71% chance of winning. But as of Monday, after Joe Biden withdrew and Kamala Harris was promoted as his replacement in the presidential race, several bookmakers have cut the odds from 69% to as low as 66%. On average, Harris is estimated to have a 33% chance of winning the crucial battle on November 5, but her percentage, according to experts, could increase further if it is officially announced that she will receive the Democratic nomination.
US election: What the polls show
But even in the opinion polls, Kamala Harris does not seem to make a difference in terms of support for the Democrats. Public opinion surveys showed that more than 70% of voters and those close to the party wanted to replace Joe Biden, and even 30% spontaneously proposed Kamala Harris as a successor.
However, in terms of voting intention, the picture for the Democrats remains unchanged, at least for now. The Washington Post average of 11 polls has Donald Trump ahead of Kamala Harris by 1.5 points. That’s a slightly smaller lead than the 1.9 percent he had over Joe Biden.
In CNN’s poll of polls, that is, the poll that includes the latest readings from a set of surveys, it shows that Trump has 48% support, while Harris has 47%. The New York Times, citing recent polls, reports that Harris trails Donald Trump nationally by two percentage points (46% to 48%), while Joe Biden trails the Republican nominee by three points (44% to 47%). The picture given by NBC news is similar, presenting measurements of four television networks.
In any case, the withdrawal of Joe Biden was a move presented by political analysts, executives and voters of the party as imperative, as the US president had lost control and was unable to convince of his intellectual clarity and ability to lead not only of the Democrats but also of the country for another four years.
“We’re moving… off the streets”
His replacement breathes new life not only into the Democratic party, but also into the pre-election battle. It is indicative that within a few hours almost 47 million donations were collected for the candidacy of Kamala Harris, breaking all records. Succession processes are still ongoing, the question that remains to be answered is whether the Democrats will be able to reverse the current image of victory that Donald Trump has.
As Alan Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University, characteristically reports in Politico: “The crucial question is whether the Democrats will get smarter” and “follow Biden’s advice to unite behind Kamala Harris.” “Democrats have a fantastic opportunity to return the campaign debate to the traditional fundamental issues,” adds Bill Scherr, political editor of Politico and Washington Monthly.
Michael Starr Hopkins, managing director of Northern Starr Strategies, a political communications firm, emphasizes that “Democrats should focus on getting their voters off the couch and into the polls.” “With the replacement of Biden there is a golden opportunity.”
On the contrary, Josh Hamer, editor-in-chief of Newsweek, believes that the “coup” against Biden is not going to work well for the Democrats. “No independent voter can look at this ridiculous situation and come to any conclusion other than that this is a hypocritical farce.”
“It doesn’t matter who the Democrats ultimately choose as their nominee. They can’t stop what’s coming. Donald Trump will win in November because voters remember what life was like when he was in office and much better than the last three years, as measured by every metric, from cheaper groceries to fewer wars ,” claims Ellen Andrews, editor-in-chief of “The American Conservative.”
The situation in the US is admittedly highly fluid, and as Politico historian and columnist Joshua Zeits aptly comments, “history doesn’t offer a road map for the next three months… we’re moving off course.”
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