The Blue Dollar: Potential Rise to $1,400 and the Impact on Argentine Economy

2023-10-09 22:36:00

The blue, regarding $1,000

They believe that the libertarian agitation has the only logic that all the pesos will liquefy and the bomb will explode once morest Sergio Massa.

“They have nothing.” Thus, bluntly, a Wall Street man referred to the alleged contacts of the Javier Miley with financiers from New York to put in dollars and finance the libertarian’s plan.

It had been said that the same Emilio Ocampo, who spent 20 years in the Big Apple at entities like Salomon Brothers, was making calls to sell that idea. Now, in New York they deny that there is financing and They believe, rather, that the libertarian agitation for the fight once morest the peso has the only logic that all the pesos will liquefy and the bomb will explode once morest Sergio Massa.

Milei does not excite on Wall Street

“It seems more like an attempt for Peronism to pay the political and social cost and for them to manage an exploited country”say some Wall Street veterans.

The latest news denotes the intention on the part of the libertarians to install the bullfight. The blue dollar, which traded at $960, closed at $945.

Bull Market Brokers, from the Marra family, the LLA candidate for Head of Government of Buenos Aires, launched an incendiary report.

The family brokerage house Marrathe candidate for Head of Government of Buenos Aires for that space, launched an incendiary report.

They said that the dollar It can reach up to $1,400 and monthly inflation exceed 50% (hyperinflation in the first 30 to 45 days, they estimate) if the La Libertad Avanza candidate reaches the Presidency on December 10.

The company, founded by Ramiro Marra’s father, has no impact on the market (is a marginal AlyC in terms of operations) but they knew that this forecast was going to go viral. In fact, they uploaded the video explaining the scenarios to their YouTube channel.

This occurs in a context where Milei said that the rise in the dollar favored him to dollarize more cheaply and more recently he harangued for a run once morest deposits in pesos by recommending that no one renew fixed terms. “Never in pesos, never in pesos. The peso is the currency issued by the Argentine politician, therefore it cannot even be worth excrement, because that garbage is not even useful for fertilizer,” he said on Radio Mitre.

Milei’s advisor and former minister of Carlos Menem, Carlos Rodriguez, pointed out that the only dollar that really rises is the blue dollar, which is the one that the government cannot control. “All the others, from the soy dollar to the CCL, have some degree of regulation. If they allowed the exchange market to unify and float, all the pressure would not be concentrated as it is now only on the blue and equilibrium would be achieved with a minor adjustment. But For that, a serious government and appropriate and credible rules are needed,” postulated the former University of Chicago economist.

According to GMA Capital, the dollar at $900 arouses astonishment, even when adjusted in real terms. But the current administration’s average free exchange rate is a rarity in light of recent history, he says.

“With an average gap of 83% (highly higher than the average of 40% for the 2011-2015 stocks), financial dollars in real terms navigated around $765 between December 2019 and October 2023. This value represents the level of the most expensive dollar per presidency in the last 40 years,” notes GMA.

GMA Capital: “The dollar at $900 arouses astonishment”

And he adds that this is a sign of the accumulation of imbalances left by the current management: unsustainable fiscal deficit, monetary emission that exceeds 24 points of GDP in the last 4 years, inflation that exceeds 2 digits per month, a completely closed economy and a total absence of anchors.

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