The BCRA no longer needs to sell in the market but cannot accumulate reserves either: it bought only USD 1 million

It is difficult for the Central Bank to sustain the level of reserves.

Although the volume operated in the cash segment (spot) remained at a high level, for some USD 372.3 million, the Central Bank did not have the opportunity to capture foreign currency in an appreciable way and ended his intervention in the wholesale square with a marginal purchase of one million dollars.

Even following having scored a series of 14 positive interventions since last August 10 – for a total of regarding $320 million-, the Central Bank maintains in the course of August net sales in the interbank market for some 525 million dollars.

The monetary entity faces a 2022 that returns to positive in the exchange market with net purchases of USD 82 million, although this amount represents only 1.1% of the net balance in favor in the same period last year, of regarding USD 7,207 million to August 30, 2021.

Gross international reserves fell $90 million on Monday to end at $36.84 billion, a low since October 2016. When the buying streak began in the market, on August 10, the reserves were located at USD 37,081 million.

Nicholas Capellasales trader of the IEB Group (Invest in the Stock Market), affirmed that “the amounts you are buying leave little to no taste. The change in dynamics is good, although the amount is not what is expected”.

“Beyond the magnitude of the cut in public spending, this signal was interpreted as auspicious in seeking to meet the fiscal goals agreed upon with the IMF, and now the investors expect strong progress from reserve accumulation targetespecially driven by a greater supply of foreign exchange,” said Gustavo Bereconomist of the Ber Study.

“The uncertainty raised from the versions of change in agricultural policy by the National Government, added to the La Niña climatic event, will have a negative effect for dollar income in the country in the year 2023″, estimated the agronomist Nestor Rouletformer Secretary of Value Added.

“The amounts that the BCRA is buying leave little to no taste. The change in dynamics is good, although the amount is not what is expected” (Nicolás Capella)

Meanwhile, it became known Exchange Balance of the Central Bank corresponding to July. The entity reported that the human persons net bought regarding USD 688 million last month, basically for expenses made with cards for consumption with non-resident suppliers (USD 393 million), with an increase of 5% compared to the previous month, and for hoarding (USD 256 million in bills), a level 63% higher to the previous month. Likewise, institutional investors and others, both residents and non-residents, made net purchases in the month for 23 million dollars.

In that sense, less than 8% of bank customers buy foreign currency on a monthly basis. According to official data, there 18.4 million people with accounts in financial entities, but only 1.4 million bought “dollar savings” in July according to the Exchange Balance of the BCRA. In that way, just 7.6% of those who have a bank account might buy your monthly quota of 200 dollars in July. In June, 855,000 people had purchased, representing 4.65% of account holders.

In addition, last July, expenses for Travel and other card payments, plus Passenger transport services -airlines and other passenger carriers- totaled some USD 794 million -the highest since January 2019-, while revenues reached just 37 million dollars. The red currency for the tourism sector reached USD 757 millionin the third consecutive month on the rise, four times more than the USD 195 million of July 2021.

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