Various analysts from the city told Ámbito that the focus will now be on ordering rates, because the value of the instruments implied excessively high yields in real terms. The most repeated question was how the Government will manage to lower those yields in the face of the last tender in June, when around $595,000 million are due, although some were encouraged to project that the participation of the Central Bank in Thursday’s round opens the door to think higher yields than those recognized up to now might be validated.
“The government is under considerable pressure, because the rates of the shorter instruments that are not going to bid were very high,” reflected a market strategist. “Why is the market going to speculate with an Economy rate if the August Lecer pays CER + 13.93% in the secondary market”, he reasoned. “That is why it is important for the Central to appear, because it has to order all the rates for the tender”, concluded the analyst.
The movement of the market registered this week generated all kinds of rumours. It first circulated, on Tuesday night, that an important former official had said in a round of investors that there was a high probability that, in the event of a possible change of government, instruments in pesos would be “reprofiled”, a version denied by a source consulted. by scope. Then it began to circulate that a disarmament of positions that was around $9.3 billion from a t+1 fund of a public bank had responded to the need for state companies to pay for energy imports, a rumor that was also denied from the state oil company to this diary. However, the disarmament of that public fund did happen and, according to the information that Ámbito had access to, it was mainly explained by a cash movement of a large company within accounts of the same bank.
Despite the speculations, the different analysts did not find concrete reasons to explain this week’s bearish rally. Some thought that, beyond the rumours, what needs to be looked at is the market’s “liquidity problem”.
In the Government they chose not to say anything. The only one who made a lateral reference to what was happening was the Minister of the Economy, who in an interview with Radio Nacional blamed the opposition for the rumors that cast doubt on the payment of the debt in pesos. “I invite journalists who interview economists who were in the previous government or who were aligned with the opposition to ask them what they would do with the public debt in pesos,” Guzmán said. “(Reprofiling) would be something very serious for the country and it would be responsible for the opposition to publicly manifest itself in this regard,” the official insisted.
