Penalized by inflation, in particular energy prices, French growth might experience a “sharp slowdown” in 2023, Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau said on Friday.
Invited on BFM Business, he summarized the evolution of economic activity in the coming years in “3R: resistance in 2022, slowdown in 2023 and rebound in 2024”, five days before the presentation by the central bank of its projections. macroeconomic 2022-2024.
“On 2022 growth, we said 2.3% in June, we will be above” this figure, rejoiced the governor.
In its latest economic report published on Thursday, the Banque de France indeed forecasts an increase of 0.3% in the 3rd quarter, following growth of 0.5% in the 2nd quarter, much more dynamic than expected.
“Companies say that orders are holding, that the French still want to consume, that companies still want to invest”, welcomed Mr. Villeroy de Galhau.
But the former senior official added a caveat: companies also admit having “great difficulties in keeping up with what economists call supply problems: supply difficulties, even if they are decreasing; inflation, in particularly on energy, and then the recruitment difficulties, which have been going on for years”.
“So when we look at 2023, (the Banque de France expects a) strong slowdown, this energy bill weighs,” he added.
Mr. Villeroy de Galhau was speaking the day following the launch of the National Council for Refoundation, where he was precisely invited to speak on “the situation of the economy”.
The government’s latest growth forecast is 1.4% for 2023, but it might be revised downwards in the coming days, on the occasion of the presentation of the finance bill for 2023 and the budgetary trajectory of the government until the end of Emmanuel Macron’s five-year term.
In a note on the economy published on Wednesday, INSEE forecast that French growth would slow to 0.2% in the 3rd quarter before falling to zero in the 4th quarter of 2022.
