Composed of representatives of BAM, the Moroccan Capital Market Authority (AMMC), the Insurance and Social Welfare Control Authority (A APC) and the Treasury and External Finance Department (DTFE), the CCSRS points out that in terms of external accounts, the current account deficit would increase to 4.9% of GDP in 2022 before returning to 3.8% in 2023.
For official reserve assets, continues the same source, they would allow coverage of around 6 months of imports of goods and services.
Furthermore, with regard to public finances, the CCSRS notes that the budget deficit should widen to 6.3% of GDP in 2022 before easing to 5.6% in 2023, while the Treasury’s debt would be 70.1% of GDP in 2022 and then 70.7% in 2023.
Non-performing loans from the banking sector
Moreover, the CCSRS observes that in a difficult economic environment, bank credit intended for the non-financial sector has increased at a moderate pace.
The same source adds that the increase in non-performing loans continued to ease during the first four months of 2022 and the loss ratio stabilized at the end of April 2022 at 11.2% for business loans. non-financial and 9.8% for loans to households. This results in a rate of non-performing loans in the banking sector of 8.7%.
The rate of coverage of these receivables by provisions remained around 68%.
Banking system resilience
Another finding raised by the CCSRS: the banking sector remains solid and resilient in terms of profitability, liquidity and solvency. This is evidenced, among other things, by the 76.4% rebound in the cumulative net income of banks for the 2021 financial year, and the comfortable levels of the short-term liquidity ratio.
In this regard, the CCSRS notes that “the solvency macro stress test exercise carried out by Bank Al-Maghrib in June 2022 shows the resilience of the banking sector in the face of scenarios simulating the deterioration of macroeconomic conditions”.
With regard to Financial Market Infrastructures, they continue to show strong resilience both financially and operationally and still present a low level of risk for financial stability.
Regarding the insurance sector, the CCSRS notes that its key indicators show, overall, a return to the pre-crisis situation. Thus, it was able to resume a good dynamic to achieve a level of growth in its turnover of 9.9% in 2021 once morest 1% a year earlier.
AREF vs. CMR contract teachers
With regard to pension schemes, the CCSRS indicates that the integration of contractual teachers from AREFs (Regional Education and Training Academies) into the civil pension scheme managed by the Caisse Marocaine des Retraites (CMR), should attenuate, on the long term, accumulated deficits.
However, due to the very limited viability horizon of this scheme, the integration of these teachers will not have a significant impact on its sustainability in the short term.
The parametric reform experienced by the general RCAR scheme has improved its viability horizons without making it possible to establish a balanced pricing of future rights.
The narrowing room for maneuver from one year to the next requires the acceleration of the implementation of the systemic reform of pension schemes.
The capital market and the Casablanca stock exchange impacted by the international situation
During this meeting, the CCSRS also scrutinized the state of health of both the capital market and the Casablanca Stock Exchange. “After a significant increase in capital market indicators in 2021, it was impacted in the first half of 2022 by the effects of the international economic situation”, explains the same source.
Regarding the stock market, the CCSRS indicates that the MASI index “records a drop of 10.1% as of June 30, 2022, following an increase of 18.35% recorded in 2021. “The average volatility of the said index is up but remains moderate to 10.8% compared to 7.2% in the first half of 2021”.
On the secondary market, bond rates were up slightly at the end of June 2022 compared to the end of 2021, up 25 bp for 2-year BDTs and 15 bp for 10-year BDTs, and this , with a level of volatility that remains limited, although slightly increasing compared to 2021.
Outstanding private debt at the end of April 2022 amounted to 250 billion dirhams, up 4.17% year-on-year. This outstanding is dominated by issues from credit institutions with a share of 61.3%.
Finally, the Committee took stock of the progress of the action plan relating to the implementation of the recommendations of the FATF (Financial Action Task Force) and FATFIMOAN (Financial Action Task Force for the Middle East). East and North Africa) in the fight once morest money laundering and the financing of terrorism and took note of the progress made while recommending to continue the mobilization for its finalization within the set deadlines.
