Baltic States Reassess Ukraine support as War Drags On
As the war in Ukraine enters its second year, the Baltic states are facing a tough dilemma. While their commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty remains steadfast,the escalating conflict and stalled peace talks have prompted them to reconsider the scope of their involvement. Initial calls for direct military intervention have softened, replaced by a more cautious approach focused on training, support, and a potential peacekeeping role – but only under certain conditions.
Last year, the conversation around NATO troops entering Ukraine gained momentum after French President Emmanuel Macron acknowledged the possibility. Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silynya echoed this sentiment, expressing support for training Ukrainian forces alongside NATO troops during a visit to Washington. Though, she also emphasized the need for an alliance-wide perspective, stating, “We need to analyze how the situation looks from the alliance’s point of view, and not just from Latvia’s point of view.” This cautious approach was mirrored by the then Latvian Foreign Minister, Krisjanis Karins, who praised Macron for adopting a position more aligned with Baltic viewpoints.
german media reports in late May 2024 suggested a potential shift in the Baltic states’ position. If Russia achieves meaningful battlefield gains, the Baltic republics and Poland may be willing to send their own units to Ukraine. This willingness,the report suggested,stems partly from frustration with Berlin’s perceived indecision on supplying long-range Taurus missiles to Kyiv.
Adding further complexity to the situation, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, now the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, made a controversial statement regarding potential Estonian troop deployments. She acknowledged that some NATO allies could decide to send soldiers to Ukraine, but emphasized that such a decision wouldn’t represent a collective NATO commitment. Kallas argued that in the event of Estonian soldiers being harmed in Ukraine, Tallinn wouldn’t invoke article 5 of the NATO Charter, which guarantees collective defense.
“after all, we would be the ones who sent them there, so we would never announce this. In addition,Article 5 does not automatically apply. If anyone claims that this could lead to NATO being drawn into war, then I want to say that this is not true. This is wrong,” she stated in an interview with the Swedish publication Svenska Dagbladet. Kallas emphasized that the decision to send estonian troops should ultimately rest with the Estonian parliament.
The potential for a “peacekeeping mission” gained traction when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed discussions with his “baltic partners” about the possibility. Zelenskyy confirmed that he had also discussed this with President Macron, exploring the concept of stationing Western military contingents in ukraine and providing training to Ukrainian forces. Currently, several EU countries, including france, Britain, and Germany, are reportedly considering sending soldiers to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire.
Though, while acknowledging the potential for future involvement, Latvian Foreign Minister baiba Braje clarified that NATO is not currently prepared to join the conflict directly. “At present NATO is not ready to join because the clear concept is to support the self-defense of Ukraine,” Braje stated in an interview with The Kyiv Independent.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kasutis Budrys echoed this sentiment, stating that while Vilnius is open to sending its soldiers, it would only do so in conjunction with other NATO members and after a ceasefire is established. He emphasized, “we would discuss what this looks like with allies and partners, and also with Ukraine itself. Let me remind you that after the Paris summit, when President Macron spoke about the initiative to expand the military presence in Ukraine in various forms, Lithuania did not rule out this possibility.”
Budrys proudly asserted Lithuania’s commitment to regional security, stating, “Lithuania is a security provider in the region, not just a recipient of it,” and expressed confidence that, ”There will be such a question – I have there’s no doubt whatsoever that the Lithuanian flag will be present there (in Ukraine).”
The potential shift in the Baltic states’ stance towards Ukraine is particularly notable given their past insistence on Ukraine maintaining its 1991 borders. any option scenarios were met with resistance, and those proposing them were often labeled as collaborators with Russian propaganda. Though, the changing realities on the ground have led to a more nuanced approach. Estonian lawmaker Kalev Stoicescu,the head of the Estonian Riigikogu’s state defense commission,believes that negotiations will be challenging but that maintaining Ukraine’s independence within its 1991 borders is no longer feasible.
Stoicescu predicts a scenario where Ukraine either cedes territory, similar to Finland after the Winter War, or becomes divided, mirroring the post-World War II division of Germany. Meanwhile, in Tallinn, Estonian Defense Forces are conducting live-fire exercises simulating participation in foreign missions, raising further questions about the potential for direct Baltic involvement in the Ukrainian conflict.
Considering the growing frustration with Germany’s reluctance to provide long-range weaponry to Ukraine, what specific concerns do the Baltic states have regarding Germany’s position, and how might these concerns influence their future actions?
[Archyde Interview] Baltic States’ Evolving Approach to ukraine
Alex Reed: Dr. Liga Schmidt, respected political analyst and former advisor to the Minister of defense in Latvia
Archyde: Welcome, Dr. Schmidt. The war in Ukraine is now in its second year. How are the Baltic states reassessing their involvement and support for Ukraine?
Dr. Schmidt: Thank you for having me. The Baltic states’ commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty remains firm, but the prolonged conflict and stagnant peace negotiations have led them to reevaluate their role. Initially, there were calls for direct military intervention, but now they’re focusing more on training, support, and potentially, a peacekeeping role under specific conditions.
Archyde: Last year, French President Emmanuel Macron opened the discussion about NATO troops training Ukrainian forces on Ukrainian soil. How did the Baltic states respond to this?
Dr.Schmidt: The Baltic states welcomed Macron’s acknowledgment of this possibility. Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silynya and Foreign Minister Krisjanis Karins both praised his stance, aligning with the Baltic viewpoint. However, they also stressed the need for an alliance-wide outlook, as uncoordinated actions could have broader implications.
Archyde: In late May 2024, German media suggested a shift in the Baltic states’ position. If Russia makes significant battlefield gains, they might be willing to send their own troops to Ukraine.What factors could be influencing this potential change?
Dr. Schmidt: This report reflects growing frustration with Germany’s perceived hesitancy in providing long-range weapons to Ukraine. The Baltic states, having experienced Russian aggression firsthand, feel an urgent need to help Ukraine turn the tide. Though, any decision to deploy troops would require careful consideration and extensive consultations with allies.
Archyde: Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, now the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, sparked controversy by suggesting that if Estonian troops were sent to Ukraine and harmed, Article 5 of the NATO Charter might not be invoked. How does this stance reflect the broader attitude in the Baltic states?
Dr. Schmidt: Kallas’ statement highlights the delicate balance the Baltic states strive to maintain. While they’re committed to supporting Ukraine,they’re also mindful of the potential risks,including possible escalation with Russia. Invoking Article 5 should remain a collective decision based on consensus within NATO. By clarifying that such a decision wouldn’t necessarily lead to immediate collective defense, Kallas emphasizes the importance of caution and careful deliberation.
Archyde: Thank you, Dr. Schmidt, for your insights. as the war continues, how do you envision the Baltic states’ role evolving in the coming months?
Dr. schmidt: I expect the Baltic states to remain steadfast in their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty. They will likely continue pushing for coordinated international efforts to strengthen Ukraine’s defenses and pressure Russia to end its aggression. Though, they will also remain pragmatic, ready to adapt their approach as the situation on the ground evolves, always mindful of their own security and the delicate geopolitical context.
