2023-08-18 01:35:00
Mr. Poon Panichphiboon, money market strategist, Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS, Krung Thai Bank, revealed that the baht opened this morning on August 18 at 35.48 baht per dollar. “Depreciated” from the previous day’s close at 35.43 baht per dollar. Look at the baht frame today. Expected to be at 35.25-35.55 baht per dollar.
by the night before The baht fluctuated in the sideway frame (swinging in the range of 35.35-35.54 baht per dollar), with the baht appreciating. Following the depreciation of the dollar and the rebound of gold prices. before turning back to weaken again after the dollar continued to appreciate The demand for safe-haven assets during market volatility is also under pressure from the flow of gold buying transactions in a short period. After the price of gold reversed, it shrunk during the stronger dollar as well.
atmosphere in the US stock market Still in a closed position. amid concerns that The Fed may continue to raise rates (according to the CME FedWatch Tool, market players give a 42% chance the Fed will continue (Meta -3.1%, Netflix -3.0%), causing the Nasdaq tech stock index to drop -1.17 overall. %, while the S&P500 index closed -0.77%.
In European stock markets, the stoxx600 index continued to fall by more than -0.90% amid selling pressure on tech stocks. Concerned about the prospects of interest rate hikes by major central banks (SAP -2.5%, ASML -1.5%) and stock selling pressure related to China’s economic recovery prospects. especially brand-name stocks (Hermes -2.7%, LVMH -2.2%) after market players remain unconvinced about the prospects for China’s economic recovery.
in the bond market The view of market players that began to expect the Fed to have a chance to continue to raise interest rates from the Fed has resulted in the US 10-year bond yield continuing to rise to a 15-year high at 4.33%, before the Bond yield. The US 10-year yield will shrink somewhat to 4.28% in line with bond buying pressure from some market players. who still views that US Bond Yield Probably won’t adjust much. If the US economy More likely to slow down and the Fed may not raise rates as many times. This view is in line with our advice that we continue to see that Rising US bond yields will give an opportunity Investors can gradually buy bonds in a short period, while the risk-reward is worth it. During the 10-year bond yield, the US rose above 4.00% like today.
in the currency market The dollar moved sideways, with the dollar facing some profit-taking momentum. But the dollar hasn’t continued to weaken. Because market players still want to hold the dollar as a safe haven asset. During the US stock market is in a risk-off condition Causing the dollar to have a rebound, and overall the dollar index (DXY) swings to 103.4 points (frame 103.0-103.5 points).
in terms of gold prices Although the price of gold (COMEX gold contract for delivery in December) has a rebound to test the level of 1,930 dollars per ounce, but the appreciation of the dollar. During the US stock market volatility pressured gold prices to fall near $ 1,920 per ounce again, which we estimate. Some market players may gradually buy gold during the correction. And the aforementioned buying gold transaction flow has contributed to the pressure of the baht to weaken.
For today, market players will wait to assess the British economic outlook. Through the retail sales report in July, most analysts think that Household spending can be affected by both high inflation and inflation. higher interest rates and recent weather fluctuations Causing retail sales to contract -0.5% from the previous month. slowed down from an increase of +0.7% in the previous month
On the Thai side, we believe that the political situation should be closely monitored. After the parliament prepares to vote for the prime minister again next week In addition, the formation of a coalition government seems to be more clear. Causing market players to begin to return to accept more risks, recently foreign investors have started to return to be a net buy side of Thai stocks again.
for the trend of the baht We still maintain the same view that The momentum of the baht’s depreciation began to weaken. This can be seen from the fact that the baht has not been able to depreciate beyond the level of 35.50-35.60 baht per dollar. This may be due in part to exporters’ selling pressure on the dollar. At the same time, the political situation in Thailand has become less chaotic and the formation of a new coalition government has become clearer. As a result, foreign investors began to gradually return to buy more Thai assets. This can be seen from the net buying pressure of Thai shares of +782 million baht the previous day.
However, even though we estimate the momentum of the baht’s depreciation is weakening But the depreciation factor still exists. And the baht may fluctuate and weaken further. If the political situation in Thailand becomes more chaotic again Causing us to continue to evaluate the baht resistance in the zone of 35.50-35.75 baht per dollar. And the coalition government is finished, we think that the baht may turn around to appreciate. “End of the past depreciation cycle” in which we assess support for the baht at this stage. The first zone will be in the range of 35.20-35.30 baht per dollar and zone 35.00 baht per dollar. is the next major support line
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