Aside from the luxuries, camaraderie and occasional public proclamations by world leaders at the G7 Summit in Munich, President Alberto Fernández’s secretive meetings with powerful and developing countries paint a bleak picture: a conflict between Russia and Ukraine that will last and that, at this point, is already on the way to becoming a kind of cold war that spreads a strong economic crisis. In addition, and perhaps the most important fact, this almost certain prolongation of hostilities began to result in greater care of the surplus resources of the powers, which has an impact on the interest in financing and aid sought by the emerging ones and, within them, Argentina.
“The leaders do not see the way out,” he told Page I12 a senior official who accompanied the President on his visit to Germany. A while earlier, Fernández had called for an end to hostilities and a greater responsibility of the powers in the collateral economic effects of the war. But one thing is the message and another is the recipient’s desire to assimilate it. When the president spoke with the British prime minister, Boris Johnson, not only was there pepper between the two when the Englishman refused to discuss the Malvinas, but he had previously had a very tough position regarding the war in Europe: he admitted that he heard his message cessation of hostilities, but that the only way to resolve the war in the short term was to “arm Ukraine”. That same hard line is followed by others, such as the United States.
But the private ones in the Elmau Palace, located at the foot of the Alps, had other positions. As this newspaper learned, Fernández held an extensive meeting with the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, and several formal and informal meetings with the host, the German Prime Minister. Olaf Scholtz. One particular fact was interesting: at the dinner they shared on Monday, Fernández had a long talk with Macro, which was later joined by Scholtz and Antony Blinken, Secretary of State of the United States. There Macron and Scholtz proposed an alternative position: the French leader said that for the first time after 40 years they are in a war 1,500 kilometers away, and that it is a past they do not want to return to. Macron proposes a way out without humiliation for Russia. And Scholtz was more pragmatic, assuring that it is necessary to support systems of economic growth that do not leave developing economies isolated. Both positions are more in line with that of Argentina, which repudiated the Russian attacks but will not be part of a demonization of Vladimir Putin, which is what some leaders seek in exchange for unlocking deals and financing. That line was also discussed among national officials who accompanied the president to the G7.
Germany, which is the economic engine of Europe and which since Merkel had been marking some differences with the rest of the Western powers in terms of geopolitics, plays reasonable cards in the midst of the crossings between NATO and Russia. In the other corner, everything that happened in the meetings between Great Britain and Argentina reflects the concern of those who do not produce food in the face of an extensive war. From there came Johnson’s request to start bilateral grain deals with Argentina.
On Sunday night, when he left the Bayerischer Hof Hotel in Munich, on his way to dinner with the five invited countries, President Fernández crossed paths with the head of the Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva. They spoke little but remained to discuss pending issues, such as Argentina’s request to redistribute DEGS that the powers have left over and reconsider penalties for those who renegotiate debts. Argentina has problems there: many of the countries that before the war did not rule out giving them up, today are conservative and expectant and are less wasteful with resources. These countries are also the hot seats on the IMF board.
In the Government they bet, in any case, to sustain the agenda. At a crossroads in the Elmau Palace, Fernández spoke with Jake Sullivan, Joe Biden’s security adviser, who thanked him for his presence at the Los Angeles summit a month ago and also praised the Argentine president’s anti-Trump speech. In that contact, he also told her that he was already all set for the bilateral meeting with Joe Biden, to be held on July 25 in Washington. And he also advanced, according to what sources who participated in that talk told this newspaper, that there is the will of the United States to advance with “concrete requests” made by Argentina. In that group is the IMF, DEGS and penalties, central issues for an Argentina that suffers from a serious problem due to the lack of dollars.
In the official delegation they were enthusiastic about some changes in the gaze of European leaders, such as Macron and Scholtz. Above all, the French turned from the historical view of the Africa region as a potential development to a south-south pole. Fernández, who centered his tour on the international issue and strongly dribbled the debate on national issues, made a lightning trip to Germany to be in Argentina as soon as possible. Today he spent the whole day in Olivos: the President knows that there is a world to be attentive to, but that the central problem is to balance internal variables.