2023-07-16 20:57:17
The arrival of the first Wagner militiamen in Belarus, who are already training Belarusian soldiers, does not dispel the unknowns regarding the future of the mercenary group and keeps Ukraine vigilant.
The Ukrainian Border Guard (DPSU) confirmed this Saturday the presence of Wagner mercenaries in Belarusian territory without specifying their number.
The spokesman Andrí Demchenko assured that the Border Guard “continues to monitor the situation” on the northern border.
This Sunday, Demchenko estimated the Wagnerites arriving in Belarus at several hundred, an insufficient number to create an assault group, he said in statements collected by the UNIAN agency.
“However, Belarus can use them to (…) destabilize the situation on the border with Ukraine and with other neighboring countries,” Demchenko said.
At the same time, the number of Wagnerites in Osipovichi, some 230 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, may increase in the coming days.
The Belarusian research project Gayun, which is dedicated to monitoring military activity in Belarusian territory, reported for its part that this Saturday a large column of vehicles with license plates from the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Lugansk entered Belarusian territory from Russia.
Uncertain fate of Wagner
According to the pro-government channel Belorusski Silovik, on Telegram, Wagner’s forces will join the joint unit of Russian-Belarusian troops, created within the framework of the State Union between the two countries, without this information having been confirmed by other sources.
British intelligence also analyzes in its daily part the situation around the Wagnerites following the failed mutiny that they staged once morest the Russian military leadership on June 24.
“Following the recent announcements by Russian officials, the State is probably prepared to accept the aspirations of the Wagner group to maintain its extensive presence on the (African) continent,” the British Ministry of Defense said on its Twitter account, where it indicated that “some groups on social networks associated with Wagner have resumed their activity” and are focused on highlighting the group’s activities in Africa, where it has a presence in several countries.
From Africa to Belarus
For its part, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes that the first Wagnerites who arrived in Belarus and began to train local troops would be instructors for the mercenary group deployed until recently in Africa.
Thus, according to a source quoted by the ISW, “Wagner seeks to rotate the troops of his African contingent and the arrival of some instructors in Belarus is part of a broader effort to rotate troops.”
The analytical center is of the opinion that the commanders of the paramilitary force deployed abroad are likely to “arrive in Belarus to prepare the training infrastructure and establish the conditions for the arrival of Wagner’s regular forces, which will be deployed in Belarus in early August.
Fierce fighting in eastern Ukraine
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said on Telegram on Sunday that the fighting in eastern Ukraine “has intensified.”
Maliar specified that the Russian forces have been attacking in the Kupiansk area, in the Kharkiv region, for two consecutive days. “There is fierce fighting, the positions of both sides change dynamically several times a day,” he said, adding that in Bakhmut Ukrainian forces do manage to advance “gradually.”
In Russia, however, they deny kyiv’s advances and assure that the counteroffensive, launched at the beginning of last month, has not been successful and has not been able to break through the Russian defensive lines on any of the fronts.
With information from Efe
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