Differences in assessments between the army and Gantz regarding the scenarios of escalation on the Lebanese front (AFP)
Said a report published by the newspaper Ha’aretz According to its analyst for security affairs, Amos Harel, this Sunday afternoon, it is clear that there is a difference between the directives announced on Friday night by the Israeli Minister of Defense, Benny Gantzregarding his issuance of directives to the army to prepare to confront scenarios of escalation on the Lebanese front, and the reality of the intelligence assessments of the army and the security establishment in Israel.
According to Harel, the prevailing estimates in the army and the security system see that the possibilities of reaching an agreement with Lebanon range from medium to high, and that at the end of the deliberations of the political and security cabinet, on the annual occasion of the Yom Kippur War, and the failure of military intelligence to anticipate the outbreak of war, estimates were presented indicating the possibility of weak to war.
The newspaper’s analyst added that the security system in Israel does not see a security threat in the agreement itself, and believes that demarcating the borders, according to Line 1 and west (the line of Israeli buoys) and then heading south and west towards Line 23, does not pose a threat, even by a millimeter, to Israeli security interests.
The same source added that the Israeli navy is conducting constant patrols, and when needed, “naval tools” are also sent north of the aforementioned line. Harel stressed that the agreement does not affect the freedom of maritime movement to cut off the Israeli army in the area.
He pointed out that the army representatives who participated in the cabinet’s deliberations said that they believed that “the agreement is very good for security.”
The report pointed out that according to the new agreement and what is related to the Qana field, and the compensation that Israel receives from the French company, the expected material loss in Israel is not high, and that the security system compares this to the desired benefit, which is represented by establishing security stability against Lebanon. Moreover, the expected economic damage to Israel as a result of a future war with Hezbollah, even if it is for a few days, may be greater to an extent that cannot be determined, not to mention the expected loss of life.
Harel revealed that in light of the fact that the timetable for signing the agreement with Lebanon ends at the end of this month, due to the end of the term of Lebanese President Michel Aoun, the army believes that if the agreement is not signed, the date for the start of gas extraction from the Kreish field should not be postponed ( which the agreement leaves on the Israeli side), so as not to consider this as submission to the threats of Hezbollah.
According to the report, this will also harm the Israeli deterrence force against Hezbollah, which in this case would initiate a military response similar to the previous times in which four drones were launched in early July, which were shot down by the Israeli army.
Harel concludes by saying that the impression in Israel is that Hassan Nasrallah has not yet decided how he will act in the event that exploration and extraction of gas from the Karish field begins before an agreement is reached. The army assesses that Nasrallah does not yearn for war (he has no appetite for war, and that he is aware of the dangerous economic and political situation in Lebanon).
Nevertheless – according to Harel – they realize in the army that a large part of the wars and operations that took place in the last two decades (the Second Lebanon War and a series of Israeli attacks in the Gaza Strip) took place without prior planning, but rather as a response to an out-of-control escalation. On this basis, Harel says that “in the last month, defensive means of protection have been intensified on the northern borders and around gas sites and installations at sea, and operational plans for an attack against Lebanon have been completed in response to a possible move by Nasrallah.”